Fast Learn
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MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds 713,502 bitcoins with a $54.26B value foundation and reported a $12.44B web loss in This autumn 2025 from unrealized digital asset losses, with the inventory down 60% over the previous 12 months to $159.89. Polymarket merchants assign a 79% likelihood that MicroStrategy sells some Bitcoin by year-end 2026.
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Bitcoin’s present worth motion mirrors the 2022 bear flag sample that preceded a deeper 62% capitulation, and a breakdown beneath the 200-day shifting common may push Bitcoin to $40K or decrease, forcing MicroStrategy to decide on between margin strain and discretionary asset gross sales.
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The analyst who referred to as NVIDIA in 2010 simply named his prime 10 shares and MicroStrategy wasn’t one in every of them. Get them right here FREE.
Ran Neuner sat down with Scott Melker on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast and laid out a chart sample that ought to make each Bitcoin bull pause. The episode title says it plainly: “Bitcoin To $40K? Saylor’s Huge Wager Is Breaking.” The thesis hinges on a single uncomfortable statement about 2022 that almost all traders have forgotten: the second leg down was considerably worse than the primary.
The 2022 Sample, Step by Step
Neuner walked via the construction: “For those who take a look at 2022 once more, you had just like the drop, you had the bear flag, you had the drop, you had a bear flag once more, then you definitely really had the very huge drop.”
The numbers behind that sequence matter. The primary drop in 2022 was roughly 43%. The second drop, which got here after Bitcoin retested the bear flag and tagged the 200-day shifting common, was roughly 62%. That’s the half the bulls are likely to gloss over. The sample didn’t exhaust itself on the primary flush. The Luna/Terra occasion in Might set the stage, and the FTX collapse in November delivered the deeper wound.
The analyst who referred to as NVIDIA in 2010 simply named his prime 10 shares and MicroStrategy wasn’t one in every of them. Get them right here FREE.
At present’s Mirror Picture
Neuner’s framing of the present chart was direct: “Now let’s return to at this time’s chart. And sadly, it appears to be like like a mirror picture.” Bitcoin has simply kissed the 200-day shifting common and fallen again right into a bear flag, the identical setup that preceded the bigger 2022 capitulation. As he put it, “If it appears to be like like a duck and it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, then you definitely gotta make an assumption that it is most likely a duck.”
The worth motion helps the structural concern. Bitcoin trades at $76,600.87 as of Might 24, 2026, down 12% 12 months up to now and 29% over the previous 12 months from a place to begin of $107,794.01. Polymarket’s $75,000 dip marketplace for Might already resolved YES, confirming the draw back check has begun.
