Quick informal restaurant standout Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) inventory has tanked 50% from its 2024 highs after a tough 2025 noticed its same-store gross sales dip -1.7% YoY—its first drop in over 20 years.
Chipotle launched a turnaround plan earlier this yr to win again extra of its core prospects, who’re being hit laborious by inflation and a troublesome financial backdrop. It’s also price noting that CMG is coming off a large stretch of top- and bottom-line development that was at all times going to be troublesome to compete towards.
CMG is projected to develop its same-store gross sales in 2026 and put up sturdy income development in 2026 and 2027. Its earnings are projected to dip barely this yr, earlier than bouncing again in an enormous approach subsequent yr.
CMG is looking for help at some key technical ranges, and its common Zacks worth goal marks 34% upside from Wednesday’s ranges. On prime of that, Chipotle inventory provides 100% upside if it returns to its peaks.
Greatest S&P 500 Inventory to Purchase Now for 100% Upside: CMG
Chipotle helped kick off the fast-casual restaurant craze, inspiring many others to enter the house within the shifting eating panorama. The burrito big exploded in recognition resulting from its easy, constant menu made with recent and high quality components.
The corporate ended the primary quarter of 2026 with roughly 4,090 areas, up from 3,781 within the year-ago interval. Chipotle operates a overwhelming majority of its eating places within the U.S., with a rising footprint in Canada.
The fast-casual burrito chain benefited from its profitable push into cellular ordering, supply, and different digital-focused initiatives. And it’s presently engaged on increasing its additional past North America to attempt to turn into a “international iconic model.”
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Chipotle doubled its income between 2020 and 2025, highlighted by three years in a row of ~14% YoY income development between 2022 and 2024 after blockbuster 26% YoY growth in the course of the post-covid lockdown euphoria of 2021.
CMG additionally grew its GAAP earnings by over 350% between 2020 ($0.25 a share) and 2025 ($1.14 a share).
Its comp gross sales declined -1.7% in 2025 as its core prospects reduce amid lingering inflation, elevated quick informal competitors, and different headwinds (this additionally got here towards 4 years of between 7% and 19% YoY same-store development).
Is CMG Inventory’s Progress Comeback Already Underway?
The burrito chain launched a turnaround plan earlier this yr targeted on regaining its worth proposition, recommitting to the best stage of ingredient requirements and portion sizes, and extra.
Its five-part “Recipe for Progress” technique contains “defending and strengthening the core by driving operational and culinary excellence to ship distinctive worth for our company.”
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On prime of that, it’s targeted on “accelerating menu improvements… increasing its international attain by scaling with intention by way of confirmed, company-owned and partner-operated markets, in addition to strategic new areas,” and extra.
Chipotle in April launched an up to date model of its rewards program to encourage its core prospects to return, particularly Gen Z and Millennials.
Traders must also remember the fact that CMG nonetheless provides a terrific worth proposition in comparison with the likes of McDonald’s MCD and others, as their costs surge. On prime of that, Chipotle sells recent, comparatively wholesome meals which can be unlikely to exit of favor, particularly as extra folks deal with their well being.
CMG elevated its comparable restaurant gross sales by 0.5% within the first quarter of 2026. Trying forward, it’s projected to develop its same-store gross sales by 1.1% in 2026, primarily based on Zacks Key Firm Metric estimates.
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General, it’s projected to develop its income by 8.4% in 2026 (topping 2025’s 5.4%) and one other 11% subsequent yr to achieve $14.34 billion. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to dip 3.4% this yr (its first decline since 2020), earlier than bouncing again and climbing 20% in 2027 to new highs.
The chart above highlights its sturdy long-term earnings development outlook, serving to cement its bull case.
Purchase CMG for Worth, Progress, and Upside in an Overheated Market
Chipotle inventory skyrocketed roughly 2,750% up to now 20 years to blow away its trade’s 380%, the S&P 500’s 540%, and McDonald’s 745%. Its 50% drop from its 2024 highs has it buying and selling the place it was all through most of 2021 and 2022.
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CMG has discovered help close to the important thing vary above during the last yr, whereas buying and selling at a few of its most oversold RSI ranges up to now 20 years.
Its downturn, combined with its sturdy earnings outlook, has it buying and selling at its lowest ahead earnings multiples up to now 15 years, with 2008/2009 the one time it traded decrease.
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Chipotle is buying and selling 70% under its highs, 32% under its 20-year median, and never too far above its trade (when factoring in its large outperformance) at 27.2X ahead 12-month earnings. Its 2024 inventory cut up helps its commerce at roughly $33 a share, which could make it extra enticing to some.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially mirror these of Nasdaq, Inc.
