UOB economist Jester Koh highlights a powerful rebound in Singapore’s Non-oil Home Exports (NODX), led by electronics and prescription drugs, with petrochemicals barely softer. Koh argues that Ok-shaped export development will seemingly persist, as AI-related electronics and semiconductors keep resilient whereas non-electronics exports face provide disruptions and better vitality costs, making it untimely to name a peak within the tech cycle.
Electronics energy offsets non-electronics drag
“The Ok-shaped NODX development is predicted to persist within the months forward, pushed by sustained outperformance within the electronics/semiconductor section amid sturdy AI-related demand and ongoing agentic rollout by corporations.”
“Whereas there are indicators of an rising peak within the electronics/semiconductor cycle—[1] Taiwan’s tech exports to the US have seemingly already peaked (on a 3mma y/y foundation), and [2] South Korea’s semiconductor exports moderated barely in Apr in nominal phrases however remained sturdy at over US$30bn—we imagine it’s nonetheless too untimely to name for one.”
“This displays still-robust AI-related demand and the diffusion of AI functions into client electronics.”
“In distinction, non-electronics exports could weaken, reflecting provide shortages within the chemical substances section and a surge in vitality costs alongside broader spillovers, weighing on exterior demand.”
“This seemingly displays some factor of front-loading in response to the US’s introduced 100% tariffs (with offers and exemptions) on chosen patented prescription drugs and their related substances, scheduled to take impact on 31 Jul 2026 for sure massive corporations and 29 Sep 2026 for smaller corporations.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence instrument and reviewed by an editor.)
