Iran warns US of retaliation, peace deal odds plummet

Iran has accused the US of not being critical in talks and warned of decisive retaliation. The US-Iran peace deal by April 22 market now sits at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.

The assertion triggered sharp drops throughout associated markets. The peace deal by April 30 fell to 45.5% YES, down from 61% a day in the past. The June 30 diplomatic assembly location market stays at 3.7% YES.

Ceasefire odds dropped in parallel. The ceasefire by April 30 market is at 40% YES, down from 59% yesterday. Each near-term Iran deal market moved in the identical course: down, and quick.

Quantity within the peace deal markets hit $1.64M within the final 24 hours. The order e-book on the April 22 sub-market is skinny sufficient that roughly $9,404 strikes the chances 5 factors, that means the market is lively however nonetheless weak to single massive trades.

Iran’s hardline stance makes a peace deal or ceasefire within the subsequent two weeks unlikely at present costs. At 19.5¢, a YES share for a peace deal by April 22 pays $1, a 5.1x return. That guess solely works should you imagine a breakthrough is imminent regardless of Iran’s rhetoric. With out a shift in tone or new diplomatic efforts, these odds are more likely to maintain falling.

Look ahead to any CENTCOM statements or modifications in diplomatic engagement, significantly from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Trump’s subsequent transfer or any new army motion may shift these markets rapidly.

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