Iran condemns US actions, no talks doubtless earlier than June 2026

Iran’s Overseas Minister Abbas Araqchi criticized the U.S. for “illegal conduct,” and odds for no US-Iran assembly by June 30, 2026, have risen to 3.7% YES from 2% yesterday.

Araqchi’s assertion prompted a market shift. Diplomatic assembly odds now worth in a better probability of no talks by finish of June, with a lot of the transfer occurring within the final 24 hours. Individually, the likelihood of Iran agreeing to give up its enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, dropped to 28.7% YES from 65% yesterday, a pointy decline in confidence on a near-term nuclear settlement.

The diplomatic assembly market trades at $400/day in precise USDC, whereas the uranium give up market sees $138,687/day. A 12-point drop within the uranium give up market at 10:27 AM factors to important repositioning by merchants.

Araqchi’s remarks got here alongside a joint Iran-Russia condemnation of U.S. actions, reinforcing the diplomatic deadlock. A YES share for no US-Iran assembly by June 30 at 3.7¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 27x return. That guess requires continued diplomatic stalling by way of mid-2026.

Look ahead to any shift in tone from Iran or the U.S. by way of official channels or back-channel contacts by way of Pakistan. Adjustments in rhetoric from both facet would transfer these odds shortly.

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