Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Reality Social:
The issue is, that quantity did not match up with what had been reported within the non-farm payrolls report information that had already been launched. It additionally got here after the Council of Financial Advisors was briefed on the roles report (often the afternoon earlier than the discharge).
The numbers solely make sense in case you add within the information launched in the present day:
Now it could have taken some fancy modeling to map this to in the present day’s launch and commerce on it as a result of there have been revisions to Oct/Nov information in the present day that must be factored it.
That mentioned, realizing these numbers definitely eliminated a number of the tail dangers round a really sturdy or very weak information level. The additionally spotlight an administration that is taking part in unfastened with market-moving financial information. It undermines confidence that each one the roles numbers aren’t leaked and traded on forward of time.
By way of market response, the US greenback has been all around the map for the reason that launch. The kneejerk was greater on the falling unemployment, then it reversed based mostly on giant downward revisions to the roles quantity nevertheless it’s reversed once more and the greenback is now broadly stronger.
Blended in with that market response has been the Supreme Court docket punting on the tariff choice for the week and a Japanese report suggesting a February election is coming. We’re additionally coping with flows across the begin of the brand new 12 months.
US inventory markets are greater in the present day and that could possibly be driving some flows as properly however observe that gold simply broke $4500 and that speaks to a number of the chaos in worldwide affairs and leaks like this undermining confidence. Do not forget that the gold rally actually kicked off in late August when Trump fired the top of the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the company that releases the non-farm payrolls report.
