Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst weekly efficiency since November 2022, down round 15% week-to-date as of Friday.
BTC/USD weekly chart Supply: TradingView
BTC was buying and selling close to $62,500 after briefly dropping towards $61,000 earlier within the session. The roughly $1,500 rebound confirmed bulls are nonetheless attempting to defend the psychologically necessary $60,000 assist stage.
How low can Bitcoin go if it breaks under $60,000?
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin is testing its 200-week SMA close to $61,800, a stage that has traditionally acted as main cycle assist.
- Analyst says $55,000 could also be Bitcoin’s worst-case draw back if the 200-week SMA continues to carry.
Bitcoin to $55,000 is the worst-case state of affairs: Analyst
Bitcoin might print a quick wick under $60,000 earlier than discovering stronger demand, in response to analyst Radz.
In a Friday publish, he mentioned $55,000 may mark the “worst” draw back state of affairs for Bitcoin, citing the 200-week easy shifting common (200-day SMA, pink) because the core motive behind his bullish outlook.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Supply: BarChart/TradingView
That stage has traditionally acted as certainly one of Bitcoin’s strongest long-term assist zones. Earlier retests of the 200-week shifting common in 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023 both marked main cycle lows that preceded sturdy restoration phases.
In February 2026, Bitcoin rose by over 37% after testing the 200-week SMA as assist too. This week is BTC’s second try this 12 months to carry above the pink line, because it treads round $62,000.
Bitcoin bear flag warns of deeper correction towards $50,000
A maturing bear flag on Bitcoin’s chart suggests the correction might prolong effectively under the $55,000 space.
As of Friday, BTC had damaged under the flag’s decrease development line, with rising buying and selling quantity exhibiting stronger conviction behind the transfer. In technical evaluation, a bear flag types when the worth consolidates increased inside a slim channel after a pointy decline, earlier than resuming the prior downtrend.
The measured goal is calculated by subtracting the peak of the previous decline from the breakdown level. In Bitcoin’s case, that tasks a draw back goal close to the $50,000–$51,000 assist zone.
That space additionally aligns with earlier horizontal assist, making it the following main stage to observe if BTC fails to reclaim the flag’s decrease development line over the following few days.
Bitcoin onchain knowledge factors to $50,000–$54,000 goal
Bitcoin’s onchain knowledge factors to the same goal because the bear flag setup.
Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands present BTC’s realized worth (purple) close to $53,740. In easy phrases, realized worth is the common worth at which the Bitcoin provide final moved onchain. Prior to now, this stage acted like a significant assist stage throughout correction cycles.
BTC MVRV excessive deviation pricing bands. Supply: Glassnode
The identical chart additionally reveals one other key assist stage (blue) close to $50,560, the place Bitcoin would look less expensive primarily based on onchain valuation.
Associated: Bitcoin fell 21% after Technique’s debt buyback information: Is Terra Luna-style doom loop subsequent?
Collectively, these ranges create a assist zone between roughly $50,000 and $54,000. That traces up intently with the bear flag goal close to $50,000 to $51,000.
Bitcoin cup-and-handle breakdown dangers drop towards $33,000
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is exhibiting one other bearish setup: a potential cup-and-handle breakdown.
The sample reveals BTC forming a rounded high, adopted by a smaller rebound try contained in the deal with. Bitcoin worth is now weakening close to the decrease finish of that deal with, near the 200-week SMA and the $60,000 assist stage.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Supply: TradingView
If Bitcoin breaks under this space decisively, the draw back goal from the sample sits close to $33,000.
