The crew at Goldman Sachs is out with their huge 2026 Commodities Outlook, they usually aren’t mincing phrases. In case you’re on the lookout for a theme to hold your hat on subsequent 12 months, Daan Struyven and the crew name it: “Journey the Energy Race and Provide Waves.”
The gist? The US-China struggle for AI and geopolitical dominance goes to gentle a hearth beneath metals, whereas a large wave of latest provide goes to drown power markets.
We’ve seen this divergence already in 2025—valuable metals ripping larger whereas oil lags—and Goldman thinks that commerce will proceed.
Listed here are the 5 themes:
-
Goldman’s Prime Commerce: Lengthy Gold to $4,900/oz by Dec ’26
-
Brent seen averaging simply $56 in 2026
-
The “LNG Provide Wave” is big: US exports to surge 50% by 2030
-
Copper to consolidate close to $11,400 earlier than the following AI leg larger
-
Battery metals (lithium/nickel) to get crushed by Chinese language provide
Goldman’s framework is easy. On the macro aspect, you might have the “Energy Race”—the US and China competing for AI supremacy and geopolitical leverage. That’s bullish for strategic metals. On the micro aspect, you might have “Provide Waves”—large new capability coming on-line in power.
Right here is the breakdown of the actionable concepts:
1. Purchase Gold
Goldman calls gold their “single favourite lengthy commodity.” They see costs hitting $4,900/oz by the tip of 2026. The driving force is central banks Goldman expects them to purchase 70 tonnes per thirty days in 2026. That’s 4x the pre-2022 common.
Goldman Sachs additionally notes that gold ETFs are simply 0.17% of US personal portfolios. We’re not even near crowded on the retail aspect but.
gold day by day
Promote Oil
They see oil as a provide sufferer with brent averaging $56/bbl and WTI at $52/bbl subsequent 12 months (spot at $62 and $58, respectively). They are saying the provision wave will finish in 2026 but it surely would not matter as a result of the excess is already right here. Except OPEC+ makes large cuts or we see main disruptions (Russia/Iran), the stock builds are going to weigh on value.
WTI crude day by day
3. Maintain copper
Copper has had a monster run — one I have been forecasting for years — however Goldman sees it taking a breather, consolidating round $11,400/t in 2026. They are saying to not ‘t get shaken out by the consolidation. They name copper their “favourite industrial steel” for the long term. The AI/Knowledge heart build-out and electrification demand will put a flooring beneath costs. If China stockpiles strategic metals,, that flooring will get even larger.
4. Keep away from battery metals
In case you’re on the lookout for a backside in Lithium or Nickel, Goldman says hold ready. China is closely investing in abroad provide (Africa, Indonesia) to ensure safety for the AI/Tech race. Which means a flood of provide is hitting the market no matter value. They see lithium costs dropping one other 25% by year-end 2026.
5. Pure gasoline: world glut, however the US is totally different
They see a multi-year LNG provide wave: world LNG provide +50% by 2030 vs 2024, implying decrease ex-US gasoline costs over time.
However as a result of the US is the massive provider, LNG exports turn out to be export demand for US gasoline — tightening the US market sufficient to maintain Henry Hub supported in 2026/27. That exhibits up within the unfold name: TTF–Henry Hub narrowing from $8.40 to $5.40/$3.05 in 2026/27, with TTF at 29/20 EUR/MWh and US gasoline at $4.60/$3.80.
One other notable tidbit is that they estimate US energy demand progress close to 3%, with many areas already at/beneath essential spare capability ranges.
