Fundamentals level to a well-supplied vitality market in 2026, with rising non-OPEC manufacturing and new LNG capability weighing on costs. Geopolitical uncertainty—from Iran to Greenland tariffs—provides volatility, although vital US-EU vitality flows are anticipated to stay intact, Rabobank’s Senior Vitality Strategist Florence Schmit experiences.
US-EU tariff threats unlikely to hit LNG flows
“Fundamentals level to a nicely‑provided 2026: The worldwide vitality stability is predicted to stay comfy as a result of non‑OPEC provide from the USA, Brazil, and Guyana continues to develop, OPEC+ has paused additional output hikes to keep away from deepening an anticipated surplus, and a big wave of recent LNG capability from the U.S. and Qatar is coming on-line, all of which assist our forecasts for decrease oil and gasoline costs in 2026 versus 2025 ranges.”
“In the meantime geopolitical dangers might pull vitality markets off their base case: the general worth trajectory is sophisticated by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, starting from dangers round Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to the widening U.S.-EU tariff confrontation over Greenland, each of which have already triggered market swings and are more likely to keep elevated volatility so long as the political path stays unclear.”
“The deep interconnectedness of EU-U.S. vitality markets make it unlikely that both aspect will goal LNG or broader gasoline flows in any tariff escalation, since Europe relies upon closely on U.S. provides and the U.S. now depends on Europe as its major LNG outlet after shedding China as a serious purchaser.”
