ING’s Chief Economist for Higher China, Lynn Tune, notes that Taiwan’s April commerce information confirmed slower export and import progress versus expectations, with the commerce surplus easing to USD14.35bn. Semiconductor and equipment exports remained sturdy, whereas larger Oil costs began to carry import values. ING nonetheless expects strong commerce momentum and sees upside dangers to its 2026 Gross Home Product (GDP) progress forecast of 8.2% YoY.
Exports miss forecasts however momentum holds
“Taiwan’s export progress slowed to 39.0% YoY in April, down from 61.8% YoY in March, and falling nicely in need of market forecasts on the month.”
“One space the place Taiwan is constant to see constructive indicators is the export worth index, which continued to speed up for an eighth consecutive month to 18.0% YoY, reaching a multi-year excessive. So long as the demand for top-end AI chips stays strong, Taiwan’s commerce prospects stay brilliant.”
“Greater vitality costs are prone to feed via to spice up Taiwan’s imports.”
“Whereas the April information was the primary miss for Taiwan’s commerce information shortly, each exports and imports are nonetheless rising strongly, and export orders information means that this momentum ought to proceed for a while a minimum of. Even so, export progress might average later this yr, significantly as more difficult base results come into play, particularly within the fourth quarter.”
“Nonetheless, Taiwan is nicely positioned to see one other sturdy yr of financial progress this yr, and after a robust begin to the yr, we expect dangers are nonetheless balanced to the upside for our present 2026 GDP forecast of 8.2% YoY.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence instrument and reviewed by an editor.)
