Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says crypto might have simply crossed into a brand new structural period—and he argues that Coinbase is the catalyst. In a November 11 memo titled “The Subsequent Massive Disruption From Crypto,” Hougan writes that he “caught a glimpse of the long run this week,” figuring out a fourth main crypto-driven disruption: capital formation.
Hougan frames the event inside his long-running meta thesis that crypto is “going to reinvent the elemental points of finance.” He highlights Bitcoin as “reinventing gold,” stablecoins as “reinventing {dollars},” and tokenization as “reinventing buying and selling and settlement.” He stresses that crypto stays early in every cycle however says the endgame is already seen: “I count on that ultimately most property can be tokenized, most {dollars} will transfer on stablecoin rails, and bitcoin can be as broadly accepted as gold.”
What modified this week, he argues, is the emergence of a viable, institutionalized ICO mannequin. “We added a fourth class: capital formation,” Hougan writes. “I feel it will likely be a defining theme of crypto in 2026.”
To make that case, Hougan revisits the normal IPO market—one he describes as “sclerotic and closely skewed towards particular person buyers.” Establishments fund VCs, VCs fund one of the best startups, startups keep personal for years, and retail is left with scraps on the finish. “Retail solely will get to take part on the finish of the journey,” he writes, in a system weighed down by “seemingly infinite laws.”
A Crypto Plot Twist: Coinbase Revives ICOs
Crypto tried to interrupt this sample as soon as earlier than. “It was—let’s be sincere right here—an entire catastrophe,” he says in regards to the 2017–2018 ICO increase. “The overwhelming majority of ICOs turned out to be scams.” With no guardrails, “charlatans raised billions from the unsuspecting public,” ultimately forcing the SEC to intervene. “Its huge crackdown in 2018 destroyed the ICO pattern and drove crypto right into a deep bear market.”
However Hougan insists the failure masked an underlying reality. “As unhealthy as ICOs had been, they did show one thing fascinating: Crypto might be used to lift capital quickly for brand new tasks.” ICOs confirmed a mannequin that was “lower-cost, sooner, and extra egalitarian” than IPOs, even when the execution was fatally flawed.
The distinction at this time, he argues, is regulatory intent and institutional structure. Hougan highlights SEC Chairman Paul Atkins—previously co-chair of the Token Alliance and a board member at Securitize—as a driving pressure behind new considering. In July, Atkins known as for “new laws and secure harbors that might permit high-quality ICOs to occur.” In line with Hougan, Atkins argued that “if we will repair what went improper with ICOs 1.0, we may see a increase in new capital formation—all led by crypto.”
That’s the backdrop for Coinbase’s transfer. “On Monday, Coinbase took the primary main step towards making this a actuality,” Hougan writes. Coinbase unveiled a brand new platform that may launch one “fully-vetted” token sale per 30 days, with enforced group disclosures, necessary lockups for insiders, and a standardized screening course of.
“In brief,” Hougan says, “via self-regulation, it goals to repair a number of what was improper with the 2017-2018 ICO period.”
He’s specific about the place he thinks this goes: “I guess we’ll see a half-dozen or extra billion-dollar ICOs via platforms like Coinbase in 2026.” Whereas nonetheless small relative to the normal IPO market—“176 IPOs within the US raised $33 billion in 2024”—Hougan argues that even a handful of profitable ICOs would show a structural level: “Entrepreneurs can elevate capital instantly from buyers, usually at higher phrases than they’d within the conventional IPO market.”
On the funding aspect, Hougan factors first to Coinbase itself. “The apparent funding is in Coinbase,” he writes, describing the corporate not simply as a brokerage however a multi-lane monetary infrastructure large: “It’s not simply the Charles Schwab of Crypto; it’s Charles Schwab + Goldman Sachs + NYSE + …”
He additionally sees upside for base-layer ecosystems: “A wholesome ICO market will bode properly for the biggest programmable blockchains, like Ethereum and Solana.”
But the bigger thesis is index-level. “An ICO renaissance,” he writes, “is one other main proof level for crypto as a complete.” Crypto’s narrative grew stronger as stablecoins and tokenization matured; billions raised via vetted ICOs would strengthen it additional. His recommendation: “Don’t attempt to choose the horse; guess on the race.”
At press time, the overall crypto market cap stood at $3.42 trillion.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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