Tony Kim
Apr 20, 2026 16:04
Glassnode’s Week 17 evaluation reveals conflicting Bitcoin market alerts: robust ETF inflows offset by rising futures shorts and spot promoting strain.
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are flashing contradictory alerts this week, with robust ETF demand clashing in opposition to rising bearish positioning in derivatives markets, based on Glassnode’s newest Market Pulse report launched April 20.
BTC traded at $75,342 as of April 19, down 0.76% over 24 hours after retreating from a six-week excessive close to $78,000 earlier within the week. The pullback aligns with what Glassnode describes as “a mix of contrasting alerts” throughout spot, futures, and choices markets.
Spot Markets: Consumers Current, However Sellers Gaining Floor
The spot Cumulative Quantity Delta (CVD) has flipped from constructive to adverse, signaling elevated promoting strain. But purchaser curiosity stays robust sufficient to probably buffer in opposition to important value declines, the report notes. Buying and selling exercise on centralized exchanges has picked up, suggesting merchants aren’t sitting on the sidelines.
Derivatives Inform a Totally different Story
Futures open curiosity has climbed, indicating merchants are taking over extra danger. However the route of that danger has shifted bearish. Lengthy-side funding funds have declined considerably, whereas perpetual CVD has dropped sharply. Translation: merchants are paying a premium to quick Bitcoin, and buy-side aggression has cooled.
Choices markets provide a counterpoint. Demand for draw back safety has decreased, suggesting essentially the most bearish hedging exercise could also be fading. Open curiosity contraction in choices might imply profit-taking or place closures are underway.
ETF Flows Stay a Brilliant Spot
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs proceed displaying energy. The ETF MVRV ratio has elevated alongside constructive netflows, pointing to enhanced profitability for ETF holders and sustained institutional curiosity. Buying and selling exercise in these regulated merchandise has notably elevated.
This tracks with broader observations that ETF inflows are returning to Bitcoin whilst spot markets present promoting strain—a dynamic that is stored costs supported regardless of the retreat from current highs.
Lengthy-Time period Holders Aren’t Budging
On the liquidity entrance, Sizzling Capital Share has declined whereas Realized Cap Change stays adverse however enhancing. This means older, extra dormant capital is dominant, with internet outflows easing. The Brief-Time period Holder to Lengthy-Time period Holder Provide Ratio stays secure, suggesting long-term holders preserve confidence regardless of current volatility.
Enhancements in Web Unrealized Revenue/Loss (NUPL) and P.c Provide in Revenue sign potential stabilization, with lowered pessimism throughout the market. Nonetheless, the Realized Revenue to Loss Ratio has dropped, indicating some fear-driven promoting persists.
What Merchants Ought to Watch
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 hit 0.74 in early March, and the asset continues buying and selling extra like equities than digital gold. The $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone stays the important thing technical stage. A sustained break above might shift the derivatives positioning that is at present leaning bearish.
For now, the market sits in a tug-of-war: institutional demand via ETFs versus short-term bearish positioning in futures. Which aspect wins doubtless determines whether or not Bitcoin retests its current highs or consolidates additional round present ranges.
Picture supply: Shutterstock
