Wednesday, March eleventh, 2026
This morning, pre-markets are remaining risky however dancing round a zero steadiness — each earlier than and after the most recent Shopper Worth Index (CPI) report for February, which got here in as anticipated. Market indexes stay decrease, by -1% (Nasdaq) to -5% (Dow) over the previous month of buying and selling.
CPI Stays Regular for February: +0.3%, +2.4%
Ever for the reason that absent CPI report from October of final 12 months (which was as a result of longest federal authorities shutdown in U.S. historical past), this metric on the home economic system — together with the Inflation Fee — has gone from climbing uncomfortably 20 or 30 foundation factors (bps) per thirty days to dropping 30 bps and holding. It’s taken CPI knowledge from signaling a warning on inflation to among the many most placating of information units that inflation is just not an issue in any respect.
Headline month over month CPI reached +0.3%, as anticipated, up 10 bps from an unrevised January print. We haven’t seen greater month-over-month CPI inflation since January of 2025. Core CPI, stripping out risky meals and vitality costs, was +0.2%, additionally as anticipated, down -1 bps from an unrevised prior month. Numbers like these ought to assist economists sleep properly at evening.
Yr over 12 months CPI, aka the Inflation Fee, was in-line with projections at +2.4%, the identical as January and 30 bps beneath December. Main as much as September of final 12 months, we had been rising 30 bps each different month. On this very column, we suggested on the time that the return of CPI knowledge after the federal government shutdown could have introduced this print as excessive as +3.3%, however as an alternative we’ve gone the opposite means since.
Core CPI 12 months over 12 months, at +2.5% for the second-straight month, stays on the lowest stage of core inflation since March of 2021. Again in September of the next 12 months, we peaked at +6.6%, again when inflation had begun to spin out into harmful orbits. So if we wish to take a look at this from the Fed’s perspective, rate of interest ranges look to have achieved an excellent job of taming inflation, even because the +2% optimum stage stays elusive.
In fact, crucial factor to think about with this knowledge is that we’ve now launched into a brand new financial actuality. No economists consider the every day occasions with the brand new conflict within the Center East are going to proceed fostering regular and nice CPI (and PPI) numbers. So we’ll hold our hat on the +2.4% Inflation Fee for now, with the concept it could be some time earlier than we return right here.
NVIDIA’s Newest AI Funding: $2B to Nebius
It could appear to be a drop within the bucket when it comes to hyperscaler investments — one estimate says AI investments will attain $700 billion general within the present 12 months — however NVIDIA’s NVDA $2 billion strategic partnership allotment to Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure agency Nebius NBIS has brought about the smaller firm to achieve +10% in immediately’s pre-market. NVIDIA shares, as they’ve 12 months to this point, remained flat on the information.
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