Zach Anderson
Feb 19, 2026 16:23
Pantera Capital leads Novig’s $75M Sequence B because the sports activities prediction market studies 10x quantity development and pursues CFTC approval for nationwide operations.
Pantera Capital is main a $75 million Sequence B spherical in Novig, the peer-to-peer sports activities prediction market that is positioning itself because the anti-DraftKings. The deal values the corporate at $500 million and brings whole funding previous $105 million.
The timing is not unintentional. Novig reported 10x development in buying and selling quantity by 2025, now exceeding $4 billion annualized. These numbers caught Pantera’s consideration—and so they inform a narrative about the place prediction markets are literally creating wealth.
The Sports activities Betting Drawback
This is what conventional sportsbooks do not promote: solely about 2% of their customers flip a revenue. The remainder? They’re feeding the home edge.
Novig’s pitch is structural, not simply advertising. By working a peer-to-peer change fairly than appearing because the counterparty, they’ve reportedly pushed that profitability fee to 23% of customers. The platform claims 5% higher odds than conventional books—a margin that compounds shortly for lively merchants.
“The home at all times wins as a result of it owns the principles,” Pantera wrote of their funding announcement. “Novig’s betting that they’ll change the principles.”
The Regulatory Play
What makes this fascinating past the sports activities angle: Novig is actively pursuing CFTC approval as a Designated Contract Market. If granted, they’d function federally throughout all 50 states—sidestepping the patchwork of state playing rules that at present fragments the trade.
The corporate pivoted to a sweepstakes mannequin in late 2024 to navigate present rules, utilizing digital currencies that convert to fiat. However the DCM software indicators larger ambitions. CFTC oversight would legitimize the change mannequin and doubtlessly open institutional participation.
Based in 2021 by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah, Novig focuses completely on North American leagues—NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA, and UFC. Their order-book mannequin mirrors monetary exchanges, matching opposing bets fairly than setting home odds.
Why Pantera Cares
Sports activities betting represents over 90% of prediction market quantity on main platforms, in keeping with Dune Analytics knowledge. Whereas political prediction markets grabbed headlines in 2024, the true cash flows by sports activities.
Novig’s income mannequin aligns with this thesis. They generate income on liquidity and commissions, not consumer losses. That is a basically totally different incentive construction than DraftKings or FanDuel—and one that would scale with world liquidity fairly than in opposition to it.
The CFTC determination would be the subsequent main catalyst. Approval would validate the prediction market mannequin for sports activities on the federal degree and doubtlessly set off a wave of comparable functions from opponents.
Picture supply: Shutterstock
