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Reading: USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: Weaker Oil, Commerce Information Weighs on CAD
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Forex

USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: Weaker Oil, Commerce Information Weighs on CAD

Editor
Last updated: October 5, 2025 9:20 pm
Editor
Published: October 5, 2025
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USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: Weaker Oil, Commerce Information Weighs on CAD


Contents
  • USD/CAD Key Occasions Subsequent Week
  • USD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast: Make or Break at 1.4000
  • The USD/CAD weekly forecast displays a bullish pattern, with the U.S. greenback sustaining a slight benefit over the Canadian greenback.
  • The worth degree is testing the resistance degree at 1.3969. Within the occasion of a breach, it may rise to 1.400.
  • Greater U.S. Treasury yield, elevated inflation, and oil costs steadiness one another, preserving the pair in a confined vary.

The USD/CAD weekly forecast means that the value is shifting again in the direction of the three-month highs, suggesting a bullish pattern. The pair holds between 1.3890 and 1.3980, indicating strong shopping for demand. The upside transfer stems from the waning Canadian greenback as an alternative of a stronger U.S. greenback. 

–Are you to be taught extra about automated foreign currency trading? Verify our detailed guide-

Transferring forward, the U.S. greenback might keep elevated regardless of the Federal Reserve sustaining its present fee minimize outlook. Rising inflation and labor market instabilities may maintain U.S. Treasury yields excessive. 

Then again, Canadian financial dependence on oil exports and international progress challenges may maintain the CAD on its again foot. Despite the fact that the Canadian greenback recovered by the top of the week, it nonetheless noticed a 0.1% weekly decline. 

This marks its second weekly loss, hitting its lowest degree since Could earlier this week. Analysts credit score the Loonie’s weak efficiency to the declining crude oil costs and a downturn within the Canadian commerce. Though oil rose 1% to $61.06 per barrel, it braced for a weekly dip amid the information that OPEC+ nations may enhance manufacturing. 

In mild of those occasions, USD/CAD stays a powerful candidate for USD-strength trades as we enter the fourth quarter, with the chance of difficult the 1.4000 degree. 

USD/CAD Key Occasions Subsequent Week

A number of the main occasions occurring subsequent week embody:

  • Fed’s Bostic Speech (Tuesday).
  • Worldwide Merchandise Commerce (Tuesday).
  • FOMC minutes (Wednesday).
  • Preliminary Jobless Claims (Thursday).
  • Change in Employment (Friday).
  • Common Hourly Wages (Friday).
  • Unemployment Price (Friday).
  • Participation Price (Friday).

USD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast: Make or Break at 1.4000

USD/CAD Weekly Technical ForecastUSD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast
USD/CAD each day chart

Technically, within the USD/CAD pair, the value is difficult a resistance degree close to 1.3969, staying nearer to the highs from late August. The worth is constantly rising above the 50-day (inexperienced), 100-day (yellow), and 200-day shifting averages. The upward slope of all these MAs reveals the power of the bullish pattern. 

–Are you to be taught extra about foreign exchange indicators? Verify our detailed guide-

The RSI at 63.84 signifies that the market may rise earlier than reaching the overbought degree at 70. Nonetheless, the present value is buying and selling close to the resistance degree of 1.3970. If the costs surge above 1.3970, it may goal the subsequent resistance degree at 1.4000. Nonetheless, if it fails to interrupt out of this degree, it might result in a pullback in the direction of 1.3827 and even decrease. 

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