TL;DR abstract:
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European and US leaders report “good progress” in Ukraine peace discussions
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Trump reiterates talks are shut, however admits key territorial points stay
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Safety ensures largely agreed, although not but finalised
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Europe stresses want for ironclad ensures from day one
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Markets stay cautious about pricing a full peace dividend
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Momentum round Ukraine peace talks appeared to construct additional over the weekend, including recent color to President Donald Trump’s earlier declare that negotiations are within the “closing levels,” although markets will stay cautious about declaring a real geopolitical inflection level.
Following Trump’s feedback after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European leaders confirmed a coordinated push to consolidate progress. European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen stated she had held a one-hour name with Trump, Zelenskyy and several other European leaders to debate the newest peace negotiations, describing the talks as constructive and pointing to “good progress.”
Von der Leyen confused that Europe is able to proceed working carefully with Ukraine and the US, whereas emphasising that any settlement should be underpinned by “ironclad” safety ensures from day one — language that mirrors Trump’s earlier promise of a “robust” safety association as a part of any deal.
In London, a Downing Avenue spokesperson confirmed that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer additionally participated within the discussions, with leaders commending Trump for progress achieved up to now. The coordinated messaging suggests rising alignment amongst Western companions, not less than on course of, at the same time as key substantive points stay unresolved.
Trump himself struck an upbeat however certified tone. He stated negotiations had been “getting quite a bit nearer” following what he described as a “terrific” assembly with Zelenskyy, whereas acknowledging that one or two “thorny points” stay — notably territorial questions, which he stated weren’t but resolved however could possibly be settled. Trump urged the end result of the talks might turn out to be clearer inside “a couple of weeks,” reinforcing the sense of urgency flagged in his earlier remarks.
On safety ensures, Zelenskyy stated U.S.–Ukraine assurances had been “100% agreed,” whereas Trump characterised them as 95% settled — a small however telling divergence that highlights how shut, but incomplete, the talks stay. Trump additionally stated Russia can be concerned in Ukraine’s reconstruction and claimed Washington would discover methods to beat President Vladimir Putin’s resistance to a ceasefire.
For markets, the narrative nonetheless resembles cautious optimism relatively than a confirmed “peace dividend.” As highlighted within the earlier temporary, the euro may gain advantage if buyers start to cost in decrease power prices and a decreased geopolitical threat premium, whereas oil costs might stay beneath strain. Nevertheless, till concrete milestones — comparable to a scheduled in-person Trump-Putin assembly or a signed framework — emerge, buyers are prone to deal with the headlines as incremental progress relatively than a decisive regime shift.
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Early EUR/USD commerce has the pair not quite a bit modified from late Friday circa 1.1765 and thereabouts. Do remember that at the moment of yr {many professional} merchants are away from the market, leaving wholesale participation gentle.
Oil futures will reopen for the week on the prime of the hour, 1800 US Jap time. The identical ‘gentle participation’ feedback apply to Globex additionally.
