The UAE is ready to outperform the worldwide economic system in 2026 after Normal Chartered raised its GDP progress forecast for the nation to five per cent.
The improve displays the UAE’s robust commerce efficiency, resilient non-oil economic system and rising position as a worldwide connector amid fragmented commerce flows.
The revised outlook locations the UAE nicely forward of projected international progress of three.4 per cent subsequent yr, in line with Normal Chartered International Analysis.
UAE progress outlook upgraded
In its newest International Focus report, Normal Chartered International Analysis raised its 2026 GDP progress forecast for the UAE to five per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 4 per cent.
The financial institution attributes the stronger outlook to shifting international provide chains and a buoyant home market, that are anticipated to offset the impression of softer oil costs.
Sturdy non-oil exercise, supported by beneficial demographics and a thriving property sector, is forecast to develop by 4.5 per cent in 2026.
International commerce tipped to achieve $1tn
Amid a extra fragmented international commerce surroundings, Normal Chartered forecasts the UAE’s complete overseas commerce to achieve the $1tn mark in 2026. The UAE–Asia commerce hall is anticipated to account for one-third of that quantity, underscoring the nation’s rising position in east–west commerce flows.
Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of UAE, Center East and Pakistan at Normal Chartered, stated: “The UAE stays a brilliant spot on the worldwide map, with the nation anticipated to stay on observe to ship progress at potential for 2 consecutive years in 2026. As we glance towards the projected $tn in overseas commerce volumes, the UAE is quickly cementing its standing as a super-connector, navigating seamlessly by means of international commerce fragmentations and thriving inside them.”
The UAE can also be anticipated to keep up twin fiscal and present account surpluses, supported by deep home liquidity. Deposit progress continues to outpace private-sector credit score growth, which stood at 9.1 per cent year-on-year in mid-2025.
Because of this, the UAE has the bottom loan-to-deposit ratio within the Gulf Cooperation Council, giving native banks headroom to pursue cross-border lending alternatives. Normal Chartered highlighted Saudi Arabia as a key market, the place interbank rates of interest stay elevated.
International outlook: US, China and Europe
Past the UAE, Normal Chartered International Analysis raised its US progress forecast for 2026 to 2.3 per cent from 1.7 per cent, citing robust enterprise funding, company tax cuts and accelerating adoption of synthetic intelligence.
The financial institution expects the US labour market to start recovering within the second half of 2026 as companies adapt to increased tariffs amid robust home demand.
China’s 2026 progress forecast was additionally lifted to 4.6 per cent from 4.3 per cent, with 2025 progress on observe to achieve 4.9 per cent.
Whereas export progress is anticipated to reasonable in 2026, it ought to stay supported by the current US–China commerce truce and continued diversification of export markets, regardless of elevated commerce dangers forward of the US midterm elections.
The euro space’s 2026 progress forecast was nudged as much as 1.1 per cent from 1.0 per cent, though prospects stay muted as a consequence of commerce pressures and uneven efficiency throughout member economies.
In Asia, export-driven progress held up higher than anticipated in 2025, however Normal Chartered expects momentum to reasonable in 2026 as front-loading of exports fades and political uncertainty weighs on some markets.
Dangers and upside potential
Madhur Jha, International Economist and Head, Thematic Analysis, stated: “Whereas the 2026 progress outlook is benign, it comes with elevated dangers from a number of sources. Geopolitical dangers abound, arising not simply from key upcoming elections and ongoing conflicts, but additionally from the rise of alliances that purpose to problem the US-led world order.
“Not all dangers are to the draw back. AI-related productiveness beneficial properties would possibly begin to filter by means of sooner than at the moment anticipated, lifting progress not simply within the US and China but additionally globally.
“Whereas tariffs are unlikely to be lowered additional, international commerce progress may stay resilient because the diversification of commerce companions permits different economies to realize a much bigger share of trade-related financial beneficial properties.”
