This Marked the Backside within the Final Three Cycles

The Bitcoin provide in loss has now risen near the 50% baseline, a metric that marked the underside for Bitcoin over the last three bear markets.

Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) has stayed on a downward path because the begin of the 12 months, including to the decline that first started in October 2025. Since then, the market has erased greater than $1.2 trillion in worth, as buyers seek for indicators of a doable backside. 

Amid the uncertainty, current knowledge exhibits that just about half of Bitcoin’s provide is now in loss, indicating that these cash now commerce under their price foundation on the present value of round $66,500. Curiously, this metric marked the underside for Bitcoin every time previously three cycles.

Key Factors

• Bitcoin has fallen 47% from its $126,000 all-time excessive reached in October 2025, as costs slide to the $66,000 degree.
• Amid the decline, almost 50% of Bitcoin’s provide is now under price, mirroring situations that marked previous cycle bottoms.
• Historic bottoms occurred at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015, when 50% of the provision noticed losses.
• The Concern and Greed Index at the moment reads 11, indicating Excessive Concern, much like previous backside intervals.
• UTXOs in revenue have dropped from 99.89% in October 2025 to 56.4% in the present day, indicating that almost all BTC tokens moved now face unrealized loss.

48.7% of Bitcoin Circulating Provide Now Under Price Foundation

Market analyst Crypto Rand was the primary to focus on this growth. He lately famous that fifty% of Bitcoin’s whole provide now sits at a loss, stating that the final 3 times this occurred, it marked the precise backside of the cycle.

Knowledge from CryptoQuant corroborates the declare. Particularly, 48.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating provide, or about 9.7 million BTC, at the moment sits under its price foundation at in the present day’s value of round $66,500. This comes as Bitcoin has dropped 47% from its $126,000 all-time excessive reached in October 2025.

In previous cycles, comparable situations appeared when Bitcoin traded at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015. Every of these value ranges later proved to be the bear market backside, and powerful recoveries adopted each time.

Again then, massive parts of provide sitting at a loss confirmed that many weak palms had already offered. As heavy losses compelled capitulation, promoting stress eased, giving the market room to get better.

Concern Ranges Match Earlier Bitcoin Cycle Lows

In the meantime, the market temper additionally exhibits deep pessimism. The Concern and Greed Index at the moment stands at 11, which indicators Excessive Concern. This studying is way decrease than the 20 recorded in the course of the November 2022 backside and matches the 11 degree from early December 2018, when Bitcoin shaped its low throughout that cycle.

Additionally, on-chain knowledge signifies that the share of UTXOs in revenue has fallen from 99.89% in early October 2025 to 56.4% in the present day. This determine additionally stood above 99% in November 2024. As lately as January 2026, this determine was nonetheless 84.6%, exhibiting how shortly profitability throughout the community has dropped.

For the uninitiated, UTXOs in revenue measure what number of cash are price extra now than once they final moved. In easy phrases, it exhibits what number of holders are at the moment in revenue. The steep decline means that ache has unfold throughout the market in a brief time period.

Many analysts consider that when losses peak and compelled sellers exit, the market typically will get nearer to a turning level. Whereas this sign doesn’t significantly assure a backside, historical past exhibits that this space has mattered earlier than.

Different Analysts See Indicators of a Turnaround

Elsewhere, pseudonymous analyst Moustache additionally believes the underside could already be in for each Bitcoin and altcoins. He famous that Bitcoin lately recorded its second-lowest weekly RSI in historical past, highlighting it as one cause behind his conclusion. 

In the meantime, dealer HK highlighted a value vary between $60,000 and $42,000 because the more than likely zone for Bitcoin to kind its backside. He argued that this space represents a spot the place skilled buyers quietly construct positions whereas others panic, citing historic data.