Tehran’s name for a assured ceasefire to finish the battle has elevated the chances for a ceasefire by April 7 to eight.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The prospect of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has dropped to 10.5% YES, down from 14%.
The ceasefire market noticed minor shifts, with most exercise in longer-term sub-markets. April 30 rose to 39.5% YES, suggesting merchants anticipate diplomatic progress later within the month. April 15 elevated to 19.5% YES. The biggest odds bounce is between April 15 and April 30, indicating a possible mid-April catalyst.
Within the regime fall market, odds for a June 30 collapse decreased. Tehran’s negotiation stance suggests the regime stays steady sufficient for diplomacy, decreasing the possibility of an imminent collapse. The June 30 market is at 10.5% YES, displaying merchants’ doubts about instant regime change.
USDC traded within the ceasefire markets reached $1,378,713 up to now 24 hours. The biggest transfer was a 4-point spike within the April 30 market, seemingly resulting from diplomatic discussions. With $32,218 wanted to shift the April 7 market by 5 factors, it’s proof against small trades however open to bigger strategic adjustments.
Tehran’s ceasefire demand hints at a diplomatic breakthrough, however with out concrete steps, it stays speculative. At 8¢, a YES share for a ceasefire by April 7 pays $1 if it resolves — a 12.5x return. This guess requires perception in an imminent formal announcement inside six days.
Look ahead to involvement from Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, and statements from CENTCOM or the UN Secretary Common, which may point out actual progress towards a decision.
Markets Impacted
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