Issues in regards to the Bitcoin bear market proceed to develop. On-chain analyst Willy Woo stated BTC stays in Section 1 of a broader downturn amid the market dip. Woo argued that rising volatility and weakening liquidity verify the development. He stated inside circulate fashions and volatility metrics now align, pointing to additional stress in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bear Market Framework Factors to Section 2 Threat
As per Willy Woo, volatility serves as a major development detector for quantitative analysts. He stated Bitcoin entered a bear market when volatility spiked upward. Volatility has continued climbing, which he stated exhibits the bear development strengthening. He added that volatility sometimes peaks mid- to late-cycle earlier than weakening.
Woo defined that smaller secondary volatility peaks typically seem close to the macro backside. He stated these peaks point out capitulation throughout the market. Nonetheless, he pressured volatility affords just one lens for assessing the Bitcoin bear market. Due to this fact, he depends on inside liquidity and investor circulate fashions printed weekly.
In keeping with Woo, these liquidity fashions at the moment reinforce the volatility outlook. He framed the Bitcoin bear market in three phases to make clear positioning. Section 1 started in Q3 2025 when Bitcoin liquidity broke down, and the worth adopted decrease. He stated Bitcoin reacts sooner than equities as a result of it stays a smaller, extremely delicate asset.
In Section 2, Woo stated world equities flip bearish as threat urge for food fades. He described equities as a big, slow-moving market that ultimately confirms broader weak point. Section 3 begins when liquidity stabilizes and capital outflows peak. He stated remaining capitulation typically happens throughout that stage.
When requested about his previous $200,000 to $300,000 BTC worth projection in 2021 by an X person, Woo acknowledged the error. He stated derivatives markets modified cycle dynamics and required expanded fashions past on-chain information. He argued that altering market construction influenced worth habits.
Glassnode Flags Demand Exhaustion Close to $70K
Glassnode information added context to the Bitcoin bear market outlook. They stated each try and reclaim $70,000 since early February met demand exhaustion. Notably, much more than $5 million per hour in realized revenue led to cost rejection.
Glassnode contrasted that with Q3 2025’s euphoric part. Throughout that interval, revenue realization surged between $200 million and $350 million per hour. The agency stated present skinny liquidity situations make a sustained transfer into the $70,000 to $80,000 vary structurally tough.
In the meantime, crypto investor Ran Neuner famous the absence of a blow-off prime or retail euphoria. He cited fragmented narratives, together with quantum threat and regulation uncertainty. Due to this fact, he stated he diminished publicity and focused on 11 positions constructed to face up to additional draw back throughout the ongoing Bitcoin bear market. As Coingape reported, Woo lately warned that advances in quantum computing may threaten Bitcoin’s safety mannequin and weaken its edge over gold.
He stated markets have began pricing within the threat of a possible “Q Day,” when quantum machines may break present public-key encryption. Woo added that after quantum dangers entered investor consciousness, the long-standing Bitcoin-to-gold valuation development broke and moved in the other way.
