FTSE 100 Dwell: Shares inch increased after Trump tariff reset, gold miners and oilers lifted Proactive makes use of photos sourced from Shutterstock
FTSE 100 up 14 factors at 10,700
Valuable metals in demand amid new tariff uncertainty
Johnson Matthey slashes worth of catalyst disposal
We’re nonetheless in a “Goldilocks” market, in response to JPMorgan strategists, which reckons non-US shares can proceed to outperform in coming months.
Regardless of the US navy build-up round Iran and US tariffs being reset, the financial institution argues the growth-inflation combine stays equity-friendly as we wrap up the second month of the 12 months.
Earnings are holding up, exercise knowledge is strong, inflation is softening and lengthy bond yields have drifted decrease, Fed funds futures are pricing extra easing regardless of three-year highs in ISM readouts and a punchy payrolls print. Not precisely stagflation.
“The robust fairness rally can result in derisking episodes,” the financial institution’s strategists say, ie pull-backs, “and notably if some hostile geopolitical information comes out, resembling potential Iran escalation or the most recent tariff headlines, however we imagine that these won’t be lengthy lasting, and ought to be seen as shopping for alternatives.”
JPM sees management – ie which shares drive total market efficiency – broadening away from the Magazine-7 tech giants, which have “stalled” regardless of robust earnings, in favour of small caps, ‘worth’ shares and worldwide (ie non-US) shares.
If mega-cap tech doesn’t reassert itself, US indices might wrestle to steer.
“After years of lagging, worldwide markets outperformed the US in 2025 by 12%,” and are once more within the lead by 8% to this point in 2026.
“We expect this outperformance is justified, and imagine that it’s going to preserve having legs,” JPM provides, “given nonetheless excessive positioning, elevated focus of Magazine-7 and the massive valuation differential.”
“If Magazine-7 doesn’t retake the lead, it’s unlikely US shares will have the ability to, too.”
The FTSE 100 is now inching upwards and has regained the ten,700 plateau.
JD Sports activities, treasured metals and copper miners, plus China-tilted names like Burberry and Commonplace Chartered are topping the leaderboard.
On mainland Europe, the temper additionally appears to be extra optimistic in probably the most half, with Germany’s DAX the one predominant index nonetheless within the pink.
US inventory futures are additionally destructive, with the Nasdaq indicated down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down 0.4% and people for the Dow Jones down 0.3%.
Is the ‘Promote America’ commerce again?
“The market response to this point is blended,” says market analyst Kathleen Brooks, including that the decrease US inventory futures “means that, on the margin, these new tariffs, are fueling the sell-America commerce, and we might see extra European outperformance vs US shares within the coming weeks. This comes after European shares simply outpaced their US counterparts final week.”
The sooner sell-off within the greenback was removed from a rout, however “is value watching carefully, and danger sentiment could possibly be impacted as extra particulars in regards to the tariffs and the way they are going to be applied come out this week”, she says.
“As we transfer to the final buying and selling week of the month, US indices are trailing their European counterparts, after a bruising month, that has been categorized by broad US inventory promote offs spurred by fears in regards to the newest AI instruments.
“The Nasdaq continues to be within the pink for the 12 months to this point, because the US tech index is a significant world underperformer.”
For the Nasdaq, it’s a little bit of a repeat of 2025, when the index had its worst begin to the 12 months in twenty years, however rebounded laborious. Additionally, look again to 2022, the index bought off sharply and fell 33% for the total 12 months, considerably underperformed the S&P 500 and different European indices however then blasted again over the next two years.
Wanting forward, as we speak’s financial knowledge is manufacturing unit orders and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index.
BP shares are up 0.9% and Shell 0.2%, with Brent crude oil futures down 0.7% at $71.25 a barrel, having on the finish of final week topped $72 for the primary time since final July.
UBS analyst Joshua Stone says vitality markets are carrying “elevated danger premiums” as traders brace for potential US strikes on Iran.
Citing reviews that President Trump is contemplating an preliminary navy transfer, Stone notes the danger of disruption across the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of worldwide oil and LNG provide.
Nevertheless, he cautions that “geopolitically-induced spikes are sometimes short-lived”, particularly with out lasting provide harm.
Within the close to time period, the analyst and his colleagues just like the look of producers with good upstream publicity (citing Equinor) however stress that “costs can fade as rapidly as they arrive” and so proceed to favour firms with stronger structural development (highlighting TotalEnergies, Eni and Galp as most popular names so as to add “on any dips”).
Some movers.
Empyrean Power has jumped over 20% after telling traders it has finalised binding paperwork to settle historic money name arrears tied to Indonesia’s Mako gasoline undertaking, activating a beforehand introduced farm-out construction.
Smiths Information is down 5% after receiving a warning discover from the Pensions Regulator over the Tuffnells Parcels Specific pension scheme, elevating the potential for a monetary declare towards the corporate.
Helix Exploration jumped 5% in early offers, shifting again in direction of current highs, after revealing that it has began producing helium gasoline at its Rudyard undertaking in northern Montana, saying the transfer makes it the primary helium gasoline producer within the state.
TomCo Power dropped 35% impacted by anticipated new fairness dilution, after it introduced a renewed partnership to progress oil-sands alternatives in Utah’s Uinta Basin.
New US tariffs are “solely smoke and mirrors” for different choices, say ING’s Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley.
“On condition that the most recent tariffs will also be legally challenged, they may simply be a measure to purchase a while for an additional tariff choice: Part 301 of the 1974 regulation.
“This Part 301 addresses unfair commerce practices or violations of commerce agreements however requires extra thorough investigations.”
The bilateral offers agreed with a number of nations, such because the UK and Japan, are “in a roundabout way affected by the Supreme Court docket ruling”.
“Nevertheless, some offers – resembling these with Switzerland or India – made specific reference to the emergency tariffs, as the brand new tariff charges have been framed as reductions from these emergency ranges. Because the authorized reference tariff fee has now disappeared, these offers might need to be redrafted,” the pair stated.
Within the case of the US-EU commerce deal, “issues are much more sophisticated”, they add.
“The European Parliament suspended approval of the EU’s commitments beneath the settlement when the Greenland battle escalated. It now stays unclear whether or not the Parliament will push for a full renegotiation of the deal.
“That stated, the US administration would seemingly depend on sectoral tariffs and Part 301 measures to strain the EU to return to the negotiating desk.”
US macro outlook stays roughly unchanged, they imagine, with rising import costs and the most recent core items CPI studying of 1.1% indicating that company America is bearing the majority of the burden from tariff prices.
The FTSE 100 is nearly again to flat now, down lower than one level.
It is blended throughout on the Continent, with the DAX down 0.4% in Frankfurt, whereas the CAC 40 is nearly flat in Paris, whereas the benchmarks in Milan and Madrid are each up 0.7%.
The Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.1%.
Markets are eyeing a world commerce panorama that’s an “unholy mess, prompting much more questions than solutions”, in response to market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor.
However he says the confusion “might but have revived the ‘promote America’ commerce,” with Wall Road futures indicating decrease.
“The preliminary market response to the ruling was optimistic, lifting the likes of Amazon and Residence Depot who in concept may gain advantage from tariff refunds. Nevertheless, because the weekend occasions unfolded, sentiment has turned and the present indication is that the primary indices will reverse any such beneficial properties when buying and selling resumes later.”
There can be extra for traders for ponder on the AI commerce this week as Nvidia reviews earnings, whereas as we speak is the deadline for Paramount to make a greatest and closing provide for Warner Bros Discovery, probably derailing Netflix’s $83 billion takeover deal.
Gold and silver miners are among the many high risers, as treasured metals costs have picked up on the again of the brand new tariff uncertainty.
Fresnillo shares are up 3.3% and Endeavour Mining 3.1% on the FTSE 100, whereas amongst mid-caps, Hochschild Mining has risen 3% and Pan African Assets 2.2%.
The worth of gold rose to a three-month excessive above $5,170 an oz in early morning buying and selling, however has eased again to $5,125.
Silver was up 1.7% at $86/oz, having neared $88 within the early hours, no less than a two-week excessive.
Copper costs spiked in a single day, however have been down in early European buying and selling, although Antofagasta is up 1.4%, with Glencore and Anglo American shares additionally shifting increased.
The FTSE 100 has opened 16 factors decrease at just under 10,671.
Main the fallers are a disparate mixture of firms, together with Whitbread, ICG, Mondi, LSEG, DCC, Polar Capital Tech Belief and BAE Programs.
On the FTSE 250, Johnson Matthey is main the fallers, down 12.7% after chopping the value and payout for the large catalysts disposal it introduced final 12 months.
In firm information, Johnson Matthey has minimize the value it’s promoting its Catalyst Applied sciences (CT) division to Honeywell and agreed to increase the deadline, saying it plans to return round £1 billion to shareholders in comparison with £1.4 billion earlier than.
The chemical compounds group stated it has lowered the value to mirror the deferral of key licensing tasks and decreased profitability from supplying catalysts due to what it described as a difficult market setting.
Consequently, the agreed enterprise worth of the enterprise has been set at £1.325 billion on a money and debt-free foundation, down from £1.8 billion when the sale was agreed final Could.
The brand new tariff scenario “leaves a considerable quantity of uncertainty, even when markets initially welcomed the perceived readability of ‘solely’ a ten% tariff on Friday”, says Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deustsche Financial institution.
Trump’s new 15% tariff beneath Part 122 can solely stay in place for 150 days, he notes, which means Congressional approval could be required by late July to increase it.
“That raises a key political query: will a small variety of Republicans in both chamber be reluctant to help what could possibly be framed as an extension of a client tax hike simply three and a half months earlier than the mid time period elections?
“At that time, the administration faces a binary alternative: attempt to safe an extension or enable the tariff to lapse. The latter seems the extra seemingly consequence.”
The White Home might pivot to different authorized authorities to re-establish a extra sturdy tariff regime, which Reid says the groundwork for such strikes has virtually definitely been laid and are additionally susceptible to authorized challenges.
Over the weekend, US Commerce Consultant Jamieson Greer instructed yesterday that commerce offers already agreed with different nations will stay in place.
“It will likely be fascinating to see if the assurances from the likes of Greer ease considerations of those that have already agreed offers,” says Reid.
An emergency European Parliament commerce committee assembly is going down as we speak, with chair Bernd Lange saying: “No person could make sense of it anymore – solely unanswered questions and rising uncertainty for the EU and different US buying and selling companions.”.
The FTSE 100 is predicted to start out the week on the again foot as merchants chew over the US authorities’s fast-evolving tariff scenario and a fall in UK job vacancies.
London’s blue-chip index has been referred to as 13 factors decrease, after it added over 240 factors final week to complete at 10,686.89.
Wall Road shares additionally had a optimistic week total, ending on the entrance foot after the US Supreme Court docket dominated that Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs have been unconstitutional.
The White Home instantly responded with plans for a ten% world tariff beneath new guidelines, rising this to fifteen% on Saturday, the utmost tariff that may be imposed utilizing the ‘Part 122’ authority, which solely lasts till mid-July.
China’s Commerce Ministry urged the US to cancel tariffs as they’re “are usually not within the pursuits of any social gathering” and “combating is dangerous”.
Again within the UK, the variety of job emptiness adverts have been revealed to have fallen 3% final month to the bottom stage since 2021, in response to the job website Adzuna, the primary time under 700,000 in 5 years.
Asian markets are blended this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite indices each down over 1%, whereas Hong Kong’s Cling Seng shoots 2.2% increased and India’s Sensex is up 0.4%.
