The U.S. Shopper Worth Index for December got here in with a softer-than-expected core studying, briefly sparking dovish Fed expectations earlier than geopolitical tensions and tariff considerations reasserted greenback energy by safe-haven flows.
Which USD methods moved past the watchlist stage, and the way did shifting total market sentiment impression the outcomes?
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We’re breaking down our greenback setups this week and analyzing how every pair carried out after the combined CPI launch whereas markets navigated Fed independence considerations, Japan’s snap election hypothesis, and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
The Setup
What We Had been Watching: U.S. CPI (December 2025)
- Expectation: Headline CPI: +0.2% m/m anticipated, +2.6% y/y anticipated, Core CPI: +0.2% m/m anticipated, +2.6% y/y anticipated
- Knowledge final result: Headline CPI: +0.3% m/m (matched expectations), +2.7% y/y (matched expectations), Core CPI: +0.2% m/m (under 0.3% consensus), +2.6% y/y (under 2.7% expectations)
- Market surroundings surrounding the occasion: Barely unfavorable threat sentiment dominated by political strain on Fed Chair Powell following DOJ subpoena disclosures, Japanese snap election hypothesis triggering sustained yen weak spot, President Trump’s 25% tariff threats on Iran’s buying and selling companions, and de-escalating then re-escalating U.S.-Iran army tensions.
Occasion Final result
Headline CPI slowed from 3.8% year-on-year in October to simply 3.4% in November, as each items and companies inflation moderated. Trimmed imply inflation additionally eased, though housing prices continued to exert sturdy upward strain.
Key Takeaways:
- Headline inflation held regular at 2.7% year-over-year, matching November’s charge and assembly economist expectations, with month-to-month costs rising 0.3%
- Core inflation got here in at 2.6% yearly, barely under the two.7% forecast and marking the bottom degree since early 2021, with month-to-month core costs rising simply 0.2% versus 0.3% consensus
- Meals costs jumped 3.1% yearly and 0.7% month-to-month—the best month-to-month acquire since 2022, with floor beef up 15.5% and low surging 19.8% year-over-year
- Shelter prices rose 3.2% year-over-year, accounting for the most important single issue within the month-to-month enhance, with lease and house owner prices each climbing 0.4% in December
- Vitality costs moderated to +2.3% yearly from 4.2% the earlier month, with gasoline costs falling 3.4% year-over-year and dropping 0.5% for the month
- Egg costs plummeted 20.9% from a yr in the past as avian flu provide disruptions eased
USD initially weakened on the softer core studying as merchants elevated expectations for Fed charge cuts in 2026. Nevertheless, the greenback reversed course inside an hour and strengthened by the afternoon session, in the end closing increased towards all main currencies.
The turnaround appeared pushed by President Trump’s Monday night announcement of 25% tariffs on international locations conducting enterprise with Iran, which sparked contemporary geopolitical uncertainty and triggered safe-haven flows into the greenback regardless of the inflation information’s dovish implications.
Elementary Bias Triggered: Bearish USD setups
Broad Market and Exogenous Drivers:
Fed Independence Disaster (Monday): Markets opened the week digesting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s uncommon weekend disclosure that the Justice Division had issued grand jury subpoenas tied to his congressional testimony. The political strain rattled confidence in Fed independence, triggering early greenback weak spot. Gold jumped on protected haven demand earlier than paring positive aspects, whereas the greenback stayed on the again foot by the in a single day session.
Japan Snap Election Hypothesis (Monday to Wednesday): The yen ended up because the weakest main foreign money of the week regardless of softer greenback circumstances. Discuss that Prime Minister Takaichi might name a snap election in early February fueled expectations for heavier fiscal spending and looser coverage, overpowering repeated intervention warnings from Tokyo. USD/JPY pushed above 159.00, whereas EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and CHF/JPY all printed contemporary multi-year or document highs.
Iran Tariff Escalation (Tuesday to Wednesday): President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on international locations doing enterprise with Iran lifted the greenback and despatched WTI crude as much as $60.80 on provide threat fears. That transfer reversed shortly after Trump softened his tone on Tuesday afternoon, knocking oil decrease and draining the geopolitical threat premium.
Geopolitical De-escalation (Wednesday to Thursday): Midweek introduced a pointy reversal as U.S.-Iran tensions eased and stronger intervention rhetoric from Japanese officers sparked yen shopping for. Threat urge for food improved Thursday after Trump stated the killing had stopped, although hawkish Fed indicators and BOJ charge hike chatter saved foreign money strikes contained.
Combined U.S. Knowledge & Fed Chair Hypothesis (Wednesday-Friday): U.S. information by midweek leaned agency, with retail gross sales beating expectations and inflation and labor indicators coming in hotter than forecast, reinforcing a resilient progress narrative. The greenback briefly slipped Friday after contemporary tariff threats however shortly rebounded when Trump signaled he would maintain Kevin Hassett on the Nationwide Financial Council, boosting hypothesis that Kevin Warsh might emerge as the subsequent Fed Chair.
USD/JPY: Bearish USD Occasion Final result + Threat-Off Situation = Arguably good odds of a internet constructive final result
USD/JPY 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
Our bearish USD/JPY watchlist anticipated {that a} cooler CPI might push markets towards a extra aggressive Fed charge lower path, and if broad sentiment was internet unfavorable, drive protected haven flows into the yen, and pull the pair towards the 157.20–157.60 Fibonacci zone and even 156.50–157.00 help.
Core CPI got here in softer than anticipated at 0.2% m/m versus 0.3% anticipated, validating the bearish USD thesis. The preliminary greenback dip was transient, although, as geopolitical headlines took over. Japan snap election hypothesis triggered aggressive yen promoting, sending USD/JPY to 159.45, effectively above our most well-liked ranges, as markets priced in delayed BOJ normalization below a possible Takaichi victory.
The reversal got here on Wednesday afternoon. Rising U.S.–Iran tensions and stronger jawboning from Tokyo officers, together with Finance Minister Katayama calling yen weak spot unjustified and flagging intervention threat, sparked sharp yen shopping for. USD/JPY regarded prefer it was headed to our 157.20–157.60 set off zone.
We stayed affected person forward of PPI. The info largely matched expectations, with a flat core studying reinforcing the view that CPI was not a one-off dovish miss. With our technical bias enjoying out and fundamentals aligned, the setup moved past the watchlist stage.
Observe by, nevertheless, isn’t as easy. Competing narratives round Fed independence, geopolitical swings, and BOJ intervention threats saved worth motion uneven, highlighting how execution and threat administration matter even when a setup checks each field. USD/JPY capped the week simply above 158.00 regardless of speculations of a dovish substitute for Fed Chair Powell and Trump’s contemporary tariff threats on European items.
Not Eligible to Transfer Past Watchlist – AUD/USD & Bullish USD Setups
AUD/USD: Bearish USD Occasion Final result + Threat-On Situation
AUD/USD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
Our bearish AUD/USD watchlist setup flagged the pair buying and selling close to .6700, with resistance round .6725 and better inflection factors within the .6770 to .6800 space. The concept was {that a} softer CPI print, mixed with a risk-off backdrop, might finally weigh on the Aussie amid China progress worries, softer gold, and defensive USD positioning.
Core CPI did are available softer, briefly pressuring the greenback and lifting AUD/USD towards .6725. That transfer ran towards the setup, because the CPI shock triggered risk-on flows as an alternative of the risk-off surroundings we had been on the lookout for.
The remainder of the week noticed AUD/USD maintain in a 20 – 40 pip vary. Stronger Chinese language information, easing geopolitical tensions, and upbeat world information saved threat urge for food agency. From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD held above .6670 and by no means delivered a bearish breakdown, leaving the setup on the watchlist and untriggered.
USD/JPY: Bullish USD Occasion Final result + Threat-On Situation
USD/JPY 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
Our bullish USD/JPY setup eyed a attainable bounce off the retracement ranges ought to the U.S. CPI report briefly take the pair all the way down to the pullback space, projecting that the uptrend might resume within the succeeding buying and selling periods whereas markets place for a extra hawkish Fed.
Nevertheless, the precise outcomes revealed softer core inflationary pressures, invalidating the concept because the pair failed to carry above the 38.2% Fib and 158.00 help degree and as an alternative edged decrease all through the week.
Though Japanese snap elections jitters put the yen on the again foot midweek and certain spurred a USD/JPY rally to 158.85, profit-taking quickly erased its positive aspects whereas merchants turned their consideration to Fed political pressures, tariffs drama, and yen jawboning. Finally, worth resumed its bearish trajectory to dip near the 50% Fib at 157.76 by week’s finish.
USD/CAD: Bullish USD Occasion Final result + Threat-Off Situation
USD/CAD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
Our bullish USD/CAD setup eyed a short-term rising development line that would maintain as help within the occasion the U.S. CPI comes consistent with expectations or increased. The precise outcomes mirrored weaker core inflation, rendering this concept not viable to maneuver past the watchlist stage.
As well as, the oil-related Loonie seemingly acquired some basic help from Iran geopolitical tensions midweek on Trump’s tariffs threats, reviving provide fears for the vitality commodity. These pulled USD/CAD to the goal entry space across the 38.2% Fib, which did maintain as help when safe-haven flows moved in favor of the greenback throughout the again half of the week to check its intraweek excessive.
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The Verdict
The U.S. December CPI launch delivered a softer-than-expected core studying (0.2% month-to-month versus 0.3% consensus), validating a bearish USD basic bias and triggering preliminary greenback weak spot as merchants repriced for extra aggressive Fed charge cuts in 2026.
Nevertheless, this dovish inflation shock proved nearly irrelevant to the week’s dominant worth motion, as geopolitical developments, Japan’s political disaster, and commodity market volatility fully overwhelmed the scheduled information narrative.
The softer core CPI studying validated our bearish USD basic bias however failed to supply sustained greenback weak spot as a result of counter-currency components, notably Japan’s snap election hypothesis and the ensuing historic yen weak spot, created such highly effective cross-currents that conventional CPI reactions couldn’t take maintain.
USD/JPY emerged because the week’s focus pair and the one setup to arguably transfer past the watchlist stage, although by a path extra complicated than our preliminary framework anticipated. The pair initially rallied to 159.45 regardless of the softer core CPI as Japan’s election uncertainty dominated, earlier than Wednesday afternoon’s intervention warnings from Tokyo officers and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions drove sharp yen shopping for.
The bearish AUD/USD setup didn’t materialize as a result of the softer CPI triggered risk-on relatively than risk-off flows, with better-than-expected Chinese language information and de-escalating geopolitical tensions supporting the Aussie all through many of the week.
Apparently, the bullish USD setups that had been invalidated by the CPI miss offered extra invaluable strategic insights than our technically-correct bearish bias. USD/JPY’s resilience above technical help regardless of dovish U.S. inflation demonstrated that counter-currency political crises can fully dominate scheduled financial information.
USD/CAD’s potential to carry its ascending development line and attain 1.3918 regardless of the softer CPI confirmed that oil market volatility and Canadian information disappointments can validate technical buildings even when the first U.S. catalyst doesn’t cooperate.
General, we charge the watchlist dialogue as “neutral-to-unlikely” supportive of a possible constructive final result. Whereas we appropriately recognized the softer core CPI final result and its dovish implications for Fed coverage, the anticipated market response by no means absolutely materialized as a result of we underestimated how fully counter-currency components would dominate the week’s narrative. The bearish USD/JPY setup by no means reached set off ranges, and the bearish AUD/USD setup was invalidated by risk-on flows responding to the identical information that ought to have supported our thesis.
The week delivered a crucial lesson concerning the hierarchy of market drivers: when counter-currency political crises (Japan election), geopolitical commodity shocks (Iran-related oil volatility), or main cross-regional information surprises (Chinese language commerce, UK GDP) emerge throughout a scheduled occasion week, they will render even correct information forecasts strategically irrelevant.
Merchants who anchored solely to the CPI final result missed that Japan’s snap election hypothesis, Trump’s shifting Iran rhetoric, and Wednesday-Thursday’s follow-up U.S. information (sturdy retail gross sales, shock manufacturing surveys) would show much more influential in figuring out greenback pair path than Tuesday’s inflation print.
Key Takeaways:
Geopolitical and Political Developments Can Overwhelm Financial Knowledge
December’s softer core CPI ought to have fueled dovish Fed repricing and greenback weak spot, however political and geopolitical headlines took over. Japan’s snap election chatter, Powell’s DOJ drama, and Trump’s Iran rhetoric dominated consideration, pushing inflation information into the background.
Foreign money-Particular Components Create Uneven Alternatives
USD/JPY staying bid and reaching 159.45 regardless of softer CPI and intervention warnings confirmed how Japan’s political turmoil overwhelmed all the pieces else. Yen weak spot pushed by election uncertainty and delayed BOJ normalization mattered excess of a 0.1% CPI miss.
Countercurrency Headlines Can Outweigh U.S. Occasion Outcomes
Whereas CPI was the scheduled catalyst, Japan-focused headlines in the end dictated USD/JPY path all week. Broad yen weak spot throughout crosses highlighted how counter foreign money developments can overpower U.S. information fully.
Knowledge Heavy Weeks Require A number of Situation Planning
Markets initially reacted to softer CPI, however stronger retail gross sales and manufacturing information later within the week shifted the narrative again towards financial resilience. In busy information weeks, worth motion displays the total information combine, not simply the primary launch.
Secure Haven Dynamics Are Not Uniform Throughout Currencies
Geopolitical threat supported the greenback however didn’t elevate the yen attributable to Japan’s home instability. Secure haven flows rely on native coverage credibility and political readability, not simply world threat sentiment.
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