A number of analysts imagine the continued Bitcoin downtrend merely represents a bull market correction, however what does market knowledge say?
Bitcoin has now fallen for 5 straight months and trades 46% beneath its all-time excessive of $126,000. Nevertheless, regardless of this downtrend, analysts nonetheless refuse to name it a full bear market. They imagine Bitcoin is just going by a correction inside a bigger bull cycle, not getting into one other crypto winter.
Nonetheless, XWIN Analysis, a Japanese analysis agency, disagrees. The agency argues that Bitcoin has already entered the early stage of a bear market. In response to XWIN, many buyers fail to see it as a result of as we speak’s worth ranges stay larger than what they noticed in earlier bear markets.
Key Factors
- Bitcoin has fallen 46% from its $126,000 peak and now trades round $67,900 after 5 straight months of decline.
- XWIN Analysis says Bitcoin has entered an early winter part, with the Worry & Greed Index at 14 and structural promoting strain seen in capital move knowledge.
- In 2024, $10 billion in inflows expanded the market cap, however in 2025, over $300 billion in inflows coincided with a market cap decline.
- Internet realized losses lately hit $13.6 billion, matching extremes seen through the 2022 bear market, although previous bottoms fashioned about 5 months after peak losses.
- Bitcoin has declined 41% over 4 consecutive shedding months, a sample final seen in 2018, with an identical drawdown beforehand recorded through the 2022 bear market.
Traders Fail to Acknowledge the Bear Market
In a latest CryptoQuant evaluation, XWIN Analysis concluded that the present market now not reveals a wholesome pullback inside a bull pattern. As a substitute, it seems nearer to the early part of a crypto winter, or perhaps a return to at least one.
The agency offered the reason why many contributors resist this concept. First, buyers nonetheless keep in mind the ache of 2022, and they don’t wish to relive it. As well as, Bitcoin trades at a lot larger nominal costs than it did over the last winter, which makes the state of affairs really feel completely different.
Additional, the launch of spot ETFs, stronger institutional adoption, and improved infrastructure additionally give many individuals confidence that historical past is not going to repeat itself. As an illustration, trade leaders like Technique’s Michael Saylor had recommended that the bull market would lengthen to this yr.
Why Bitcoin Might Have Already Entered a Bear Market
Nonetheless, XWIN Analysis burdened that worth alone doesn’t outline winter. Notably, provide and demand adjustments, capital flows, and sentiment present the actual knowledge. Proper now, the Worry & Greed Index stands at 14, a stage categorized as Excessive Worry. The agency famous that comparable sentiment drops appeared in previous cycles earlier than costs adjusted downward.
Capital move knowledge additionally factors to winter situations. In 2024, $10 billion in inflows helped develop Bitcoin’s market cap. Nevertheless, in 2025, greater than $300 billion flowed into the market, however the market cap declined.
XWIN Analysis sees this as an indication of ongoing promoting strain. On-chain revenue knowledge additionally reveals falling realized features regardless of excessive worth ranges, which signifies weakening inside energy.
Based mostly on this knowledge, XWIN Analysis believes Bitcoin might already be getting into winter, even when larger costs and stronger infrastructure delay broader recognition. The agency stated it will rethink this view if ETF inflows stabilize and if on-chain distribution slows clearly.
How Historical past Defines Bitcoin Winter
In the meantime, the chart that accompanied XWIN’s report offered two definitions of Bitcoin winter. Below a broad definition, winter stretched from the November 2021 peak to the November 2022 backside. Throughout that one-year interval, Bitcoin declined from its all-time excessive and dragged all the crypto market right into a bearish pattern.
Nevertheless, beneath a narrower definition, the core winter part ran from Might 2022 to November 2022. This era included the collapse of LUNA, the failure of Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and the chapter of FTX.
Analysts Break up on What Comes Subsequent
Nevertheless, not everybody agrees {that a} bear market has already begun. Investor and commentator Mr. Crypto Whale shared what he calls his 2026 Bull Run Roadmap.
2026 Bull Run Roadmap:
February → Bear entice
March → Bitcoin breakout
April → Altcoin season
Might → New ATH round $215K
June → Bull entice
July → Liquidation cascade
August → Bear market kicks inSave this. Let’s revisit in 6 months. 🔖 pic.twitter.com/8pudGTrTqR
— Mr. Crypto Whale 🐋 (@Mrcryptoxwhale) February 8, 2026
Notably, he believes the present downtrend this month is a bear entice and can result in a Bitcoin breakout in March. He predicts an altcoin season in April and a brand new all-time excessive round $215,000 in Might. After that, he sees a bull entice in June, a liquidation cascade in July, and the official begin of a bear market in August.
In the meantime, Bitcoinsensus reported that Bitcoin’s internet realized losses have reached ranges much like the worst moments of the 2022 bear market. Simply three days in the past, realized losses hit $13.6 billion.
🚨 BIG: #Bitcoin Realized Losses Attain Bear-Market Extremes 💥
Bitcoin Internet Realized Losses are actually akin to the worst ranges of the 2022 bear market.
Simply 3 days in the past, realized losses hit $13.6 BILLION. 📉
Nevertheless, it’s value noting:
🔹 The 2022 loss peak got here ~5 months… pic.twitter.com/cSEdMznJhN— Bitcoinsensus (@Bitcoinsensus) February 11, 2026
Nevertheless, Bitcoinsensus reminded buyers that in 2022, realized losses peaked about 5 months earlier than the precise market backside fashioned, which reveals that bottoms take time to develop.
CryptoQuant creator Woo Minkyu additionally warned three months in the past that Bitcoin had already entered a bear market, citing the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), whereas it nonetheless traded above $86,000. Right this moment, Bitcoin trades at $67,900.
A Downtrend That Mirrors Previous Bear Markets
Additionally, Bitcoin’s latest efficiency seems more and more much like previous bear markets. The asset has recorded 4 consecutive months of losses and stays on observe to log a fifth. Over this era, Bitcoin has dropped 41%.
The final time Bitcoin posted 4 straight months of declines was through the 2018 bear market, not even throughout 2022. The final time it suffered a 41% drawdown occurred through the 2022 bear market.
DisClamier: This content material is informational and shouldn’t be thought of monetary recommendation. The views expressed on this article might embody the creator’s private opinions and don’t mirror The Crypto Fundamental opinion. Readers are inspired to do thorough analysis earlier than making any funding choices. The Crypto Fundamental shouldn’t be accountable for any monetary losses.
