A CIA report on rising army tensions within the Gulf has hit the chances for a ceasefire. The possibility of a ceasefire by April 7 is now at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% per week in the past.
The US-Iran battle and Iran’s management over the Strait of Hormuz are driving down ceasefire hopes. The April 7 market dropped 2 factors to eight% after a morning sell-off. The April 15 market additionally fell to 18%, displaying doubt about fast negotiations. Longer-term markets like April 30 are at 38%, nonetheless decrease than final week.
Buying and selling quantity hit $1,365,780 in USDC throughout all ceasefire markets. Shifting the April 7 odds by 5 factors wants $15,138, indicating average market depth. The most important single transfer was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM. Energetic buying and selling is obvious, however there’s no robust perception in a ceasefire quickly.
The report’s escalation information cuts short-term ceasefire odds. A YES share at 8¢ for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, however merchants must guess on main diplomatic progress in 5 days. The present scenario doesn’t help that. Longer timelines have barely higher odds, however merchants count on ongoing battle.
Look ahead to any diplomatic strikes or softer rhetoric from leaders like Trump or the Sultan of Oman. These may shift market sentiment towards a ceasefire.
Markets Impacted
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