November earnings recap: A cleaner, leaner Disney
Disney’s November quarter marked a transparent inflection level for the corporate. Administration reaffirmed that the multi-year turnaround is gaining traction, pushed by disciplined value management, worthwhile streaming progress, and resilient Experiences demand.
Adjusted EPS got here in forward of expectations, boosted by greater Parks & Experiences working earnings and streaming losses narrowing quicker than forecast.
The corporate guided for double-digit EPS progress in FY26, underscoring confidence in its core franchises, a leaner value base, and increasing DTC profitability. CEO Bob Iger highlighted ESPN’s upcoming standalone app launch and the following wave of blockbuster releases as pivotal to reigniting progress.
Technical setup: A flag on the verge of decision
Disney’s chart is coiling tightly inside a traditional bull flag, and the technicals counsel it’s itching to interrupt greater.
- Worth Motion: DIS has reclaimed each anchored VWAPs—one drawn from the July impulse low, and one other from the latest corrective excessive. That’s a robust sign that consumers are regaining management and that provide has been absorbed.
- Construction: The inventory has been consolidating in a well-defined flag between roughly $110–116, following its sturdy Q3 rally.
- Momentum: With RSI firming above 50 and quantity tapering on dips, momentum compression is setting the stage for a transfer.
Set off Degree: A decisive every day shut above $116 would verify a breakout, concentrating on the base of the flag close to $124—a degree that coincides with prior resistance from mid-2023.
Assist Zone: Watch $110–111 as near-term assist. A sustained drop beneath would counsel the breakout setup is delayed, not invalidated.
Briefly: Disney’s chart is constructively wound—the sort of setup that usually precedes a spread enlargement.
Catalysts that might energy the transfer towards $124
The following two earnings cycles are loaded with potential EPS revision triggers that might gas a breakout:
Streaming & ESPN DTC Upside
- What to look at: ESPN’s standalone app and cross-bundle adoption (Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+).
- Why it issues: A stronger ARPU combine or early ESPN DTC profitability may elevate Leisure & Sports activities section OI and FY/FY+1 Adjusted EPS.
- When seen: As early as subsequent quarter, through subscriber, ARPU, and margin tendencies.
Experiences Section Momentum
- What to look at: Park attendance, per-capita spend, and cruise bookings.
- Why it issues: Experiences delivered report working earnings in FY25, and with Disney Future and Journey increasing capability, one other upside print may add EPS tailwind.
- When seen: Subsequent earnings through ahead bookings and occupancy metrics.
Studio Slate & Content material Efficiency
- What to look at: Field workplace outcomes for Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fireplace and Ash, and Toy Story 5.
- Why it issues: A powerful launch slate may increase Content material Gross sales/Licensing and drive Disney+ engagement, whereas misfires may drag on near-term earnings.
- When seen: Instantly post-release and mirrored in subsequent two earnings stories.
Wildcard: Any prolonged carriage dispute or affiliate churn in Sports activities/Linear could be a near-term headwind. Administration’s FY26 information features a hedge right here, however traders ought to monitor renewal developments.
The takeaway
Disney is technically primed and basically supported. With value reclaiming each VWAPs and a flag sample nearing decision, the setup favors a breakout towards $124 if upcoming catalysts ship.
If streaming profitability, Experiences power, or a success movie cycle verify by means of the following earnings calls, DIS may rapidly reprice greater—doubtlessly breaking the flag and initiating a recent leg up.
For now, $116 is the extent to beat, and the subsequent two quarters maintain the proof to justify it.
Abstract:
- Sample: Bull flag with reclaimed VWAPs.
- Set off: Shut > $116.
- Goal: $124.
- Catalysts: Streaming margins, Experiences progress, blockbuster slate.
- Timing: Over subsequent 1–2 earnings cycles.
