The Port of Los Angeles is seen from the Goodyear Blimp on Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025 in Los Angeles, CA.
Juliana Yamada | Los Angeles Instances | Getty Pictures
New information from the Port of Los Angeles reveals that commitments made by China to purchase extra U.S. agricultural merchandise as a part of a commerce cut price between Chinese language President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have but to materialize, and that has contributed to a decline in cargo quantity to close a three-year low for the nation’s busiest port.
Whole processed cargo quantity on the Port of Los Angeles in January was down by roughly 12% yr over yr, with Gene Seroka, govt director for the Port of Los Angeles, citing a decline in agricultural exports as among the many main elements. “Exports to China look dismal,” he mentioned.
Exports to China have dropped significantly throughout the nation’s main ports, with containerized exports down 26% final yr, in response to information shared by the Port of Los Angeles. Los Angeles took an enormous hit on the essential agricultural export of soybeans, in response to Seroka.
In early 2026, President Trump introduced China was contemplating buying an extra eight million metric tons of U.S. soybeans (totaling 20 million) for the present season, following the October 2025 settlement to purchase 12 million tons.
Soybeans popping out of the Port of Los Angeles to China had been down 80% final yr, and no enchancment was seen in both November or December after the preliminary discussions between the U.S. and China.
“It is a actually necessary a part of the general export technique right here,” Seroka mentioned. “Argentina and Brazil have picked up loads of the contracts for China on soybeans,” he mentioned, and he added that any improve within the U.S. farm sector’s potential to export will take time. “These usually are not transactional-type purposes. These are agreements that the final three, six, and twelve months in length. So it will be yet one more cycle earlier than the U.S. soybean exporter has an opportunity to bid and get into the sport,” he added.
The Port of Los Angeles reported roughly 812,000 twenty-foot equal models (TEUs) for the month of January, together with imports, exports and empty containers. In January 2025, roughly 924,000 TEUs had been reported, fueled by front-loading of freight forward of not solely the main vacation interval in Asia however the begin of President Trump’s second-term tariffs. Breaking out the container depend, January imports had been 421,000 container models, down 13% from final yr’s greater ranges. On the export aspect, 104,000 container models had been processed, an 8% drop yr over yr.
Empty containers that in occasions of excessive demand are despatched again to Asia, a forwarding trying indicator of Asia demand, got here in at 286,000 TEUs, a 12% drop from final yr, in response to the Port of Los Angeles.
Seroka mentioned the elevated 2025 numbers from a interval when importers had been scrambling to get cargo in forward of tariffs will proceed to be a consider comparisons all through a lot of 2026. “U.S. commerce coverage stays largely unsure, and I count on that to proceed,” he mentioned.
The freight container import quantity drop on the nation’s largest port was notable throughout what’s normally a busy interval for import exercise from China, and Asian manufacturing hubs extra broadly, resulting from Lunar New 12 months, as corporations usher in spring and summer season gadgets earlier than manufacturing vegetation in China shut for a month to have fun the vacation. Softer demand for items will also be seen in February information so far, with container counts from arrivals trying “flat,” in response to Seroka. “In comparison with final yr’s large first quarter, I venture a decline of lower than 10% for Q1 and I do not see the economic system or cargo quantity dropping off a cliff after that,” he mentioned.
However he added that the January numbers are troubling. “That is our lowest month-to-month output in virtually three years,” Seroka mentioned. “This reinforces why commerce coverage is so necessary. American farmers and producers want to stay aggressive in world markets. They merely cannot afford to lose extra floor,” he mentioned.
Ocean freight economics on U.S. routes close to ‘break-even level’
As U.S. port exercise has slumped, strain is being felt all through the ocean delivery market, with charges trending down and an excessive amount of obtainable container capability on ships.
In accordance with Peter Sand, chief delivery analyst at Xeneta, the lower in container volumes has led to a widespread drop in ocean freight charges. Within the “mid-low market section” — usually occupied by the bigger quantity shippers — charges have fallen over 18% within the final month, whereas the market common has fallen 11.5%.
“With the market mid-low performing as a bellwether and seemingly impacted extra instantly by the growing capability on the transpacific, these shippers paying the market common ought to count on additional softening in charges within the coming weeks,” mentioned Sand.
Ocean carriers will reply with what Sand referred to as “aggressive capability administration,” which might imply extra clean (canceled) sailings to assist put a ground beneath falling charges.
In a latest word to shoppers, Honour Lane Transport mentioned present freight fee ranges have “fallen near and even beneath” provider break-even factors on all lanes to the U.S. and Canada.
HLS famous the variety of canceled sailings beginning with the week of Feb. 9 mirrored vessel capability discount of 60%, 58%, and 50% on the Asia to Pacific South West, Asia to Pacific North West, and Asia to U.S. East Coast commerce lanes.
On account of the cancelled sailings, containers could also be “rolled” a couple of times whereas nonetheless in Asia — which means the containers sit idle throughout weeks on the commerce calendar till they are often positioned on a vessel with a vacation spot within the U.S. “This might trigger provide chain disruption and delays for shippers,” mentioned Sand.
China’s import combine in January remained closely concentrated in shopper items and industrial inputs, in response to commerce information compiled by Descartes, with furnishings and bedding, at 126,149 TEUs, accounting for 16.4% of China-origin imports. Plastics represented 15.4%, whereas the mixed import classes of equipment and electrical equipment reached 18.3% of whole quantity. Attire, footwear and different textiles mixed made up 6.5% of whole quantity, whereas toys and sporting items accounted for five.8% of imports, in response to Descartes information.
The decline in commerce quantity from China is being offset to a level by the enlargement of producing into Southeast Asian nations. In January, there was a 17.8% year-over-year improve in U.S. containerized imports from Vietnam, in response to Descartes, whereas imports from Thailand and Indonesia elevated 36.5% and 18%, respectively.
“The increasing sourcing from Southeast Asia is constant to offset a portion of the decline in China-origin imports,” Honour Lane wrote in its latest word to shoppers.
Seroka mentioned the Port of Los Angeles had round 60% of its import enterprise tied to China at the start of the primary commerce warfare in 2018. “At this time, it is 40 % and dropping,” he mentioned. The port has been capable of develop because of the mixture of Southeast Asia nations making positive aspects, together with Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines. “However once more, you are not going to switch China and even one province in China with one other origin,” Seroka mentioned.
The Port of Lengthy Seashore, the sister port to Los Angeles, reported document container volumes because of the front-loading in 2025, with quantity progress helped by commerce out of Southeast Asia.
