Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) takes half within the “Anti-Imperialist” protest in entrance of the US Embassy in opposition to the US incursion in Venezuela, the place 32 Cuban troopers misplaced their lives, in Havana on January 16, 2026.
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Cuba’s communist-run authorities is going through its largest check for the reason that collapse of the Soviet Union.
U.S. President Donald Trump has ratcheted up the strain on the Caribbean island for the reason that Jan. 3, navy operation to grab Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a long-time ally of Cuba’s authorities. Cuba stated 32 of its residents had been killed within the assault.
Trump has since successfully minimize Cuba off from Venezuelan oil, known as its authorities “an uncommon and extraordinary menace” and pledged to impose tariffs on any nation that provides it with oil.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the transfer and stated: “Give up just isn’t an choice.” He is since stated the federal government is ready to carry talks with Washington, albeit “with out strain or preconditions.”
The nation has warned that worldwide airways would not find a way refuel within the nation as a consequence of gasoline shortages. Gripped by a worsening financial disaster, Cuba’s authorities just lately adopted rationing measures to guard important companies and ration gasoline provides for key sectors.
The plan reportedly consists of restrictions on gasoline gross sales, the closure of some vacationer institutions, shortening faculty days and a shorter working week at state-owned firms to 4 days, from Monday to Thursday.
“The present scenario in Cuba is as severe because it has been for the reason that Nineteen Nineties, when Cuba immediately needed to survive with out the assist of the Japanese Bloc,” Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Research on the U.Ok.’s College of Nottingham, instructed CNBC by electronic mail.
The chances are shortening that President Miguel Díaz-Canel can be pressured from energy within the weeks or months forward in a Maduro-style managed transition.
Robert Munks
Head of Americas analysis at Verisk Maplecroft
Trump’s tariff threats have created a deterrent for a lot of nations, Kumaraswami stated.
Mexico has despatched humanitarian support however suspended oil shipments, because it sought to protect its relationship with Havana whereas avoiding Trump’s tariffs.
Kumaraswami stated there was “in fact frustration with the difficulties of day by day life,” however that “many Cubans are resolved to withstand threats to their nationwide sovereignty and a brand new wave of patriotism has emerged.”
‘An accelerating collapse’
Air Canada subsequently has canceled all flights to Cuba amid the gasoline scarcity, although the airline stated Monday that it could convey some 3,000 clients already within the nation dwelling over the approaching days.
Tourism is a major income for Cuba’s cash-strapped authorities and the nation is a well-liked winter trip vacation spot for Canadian vacationers.
A Turkish Airways airplane takes off at Jose Marti Worldwide Airport in Havana on February 9, 2026.
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In contrast to in earlier crises, Cuba’s regime lacks international companions that may step in to assist, based on Robert Munks, head of Americas analysis in danger intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.
“Elevating the stakes, the US has additionally restricted Cuba’s entry to laborious foreign money and pressured Nicaragua to finish visa-free journey for Cubans,” Munks instructed CNBC by electronic mail.
The federal government’s pledge to extend the usage of restricted renewable power sources is probably going “too little, too late,” Munks stated. He added that outbreaks of civil unrest had been attainable, on condition that the island’s home power manufacturing is much in need of what it must hold the lights on.
“An accelerating collapse of fundamental companies will put the regime underneath excessive strain to discover a negotiated resolution,” Munks stated.
He added that “the percentages are shortening” on Díaz-Canel being pressured from energy within the months forward in a Maduro-style managed transition, however Munks stated it was extra possible that “the regime will attempt to muddle via” till the U.S. midterm elections in November.
Cuba’s dwindling oil provides prompted the United Nations to warn of a attainable humanitarian “collapse” final week.
“The Secretary-Basic is extraordinarily involved concerning the humanitarian scenario in Cuba, which can worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil wants go unmet,” stated UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.
An enormous check for BRICS
Cuba’s emergency measures must be seen as essential check for the BRICS bloc of growing nations, based on Helen Yaffe, a Cuba professional and professor of Latin American political financial system on the College of Glasgow, Scotland.
“That is in all probability an important check now for BRICS … If BRICS can not defend, defend and rally round a member, then what’s it value?” Yaffe instructed CNBC by phone.
Cuba acquired “companion nation” standing of the BRICS group in January final 12 months, bolstering its ties with the likes of Brazil, Russia and China. Certainly, every of those three international locations have sought to supply assist to Cuba in latest days.
The Mexican authorities has dispatched humanitarian support to the folks of Cuba aboard two ships of the Mexican Navy. Greater than 800 tons of provides had been transported by sea from Asipona, in Veracruz, Mexico, on February 9, 2026.
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A spokesperson for China’s international ministry stated Tuesday that Beijing “stands firmly in opposition to the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban folks of their proper to subsistence and growth.” They added that China would, “as at all times,” search to offer help to Cuba.
Russia, in the meantime, has described Havana’s gasoline scenario as “really crucial” and stated U.S. makes an attempt to additional strain the nation had been inflicting quite a few issues.
“The Cuban authorities just isn’t going to submit,” Yaffe stated. “The very fact is, [the U.S. is] going to maintain squeezing and the Cubans are going to maintain resisting and there is going to be a number of pointless struggling.”
She added: “I am a historian and it’s extremely vainglorious for historians to try to predict the longer term however we will have a look at traits — and I can assure you that we had been right here earlier than within the early Nineteen Nineties the place no person thought Cuba would pull collectively and pull via — they usually did.”
