Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) inventory is on a roll — though the roll is type of rocky.
Shares of the electrical truck maker have been buying and selling publicly for greater than 4 years now. Since their late 2021 preliminary public providing (IPO), nevertheless, they’ve principally been buying and selling down. Consequently, Rivian inventory has misplaced 81% of its valuation at IPO — versus a 47% acquire for the S&P 500.
And but, Rivian inventory appears to have caught its second wind currently.
2025 was an odd yr for this to occur, what with Rivian being an electrical automobile firm, and Congress having simply repealed the $7,500 electrical automobile (EV) tax credit score this yr. Regardless, in 2025, Rivian shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by an element of two, producing returns exceeding 32% for shareholders, in comparison with 14.2% for the S&P.
Admittedly, the size of the above chart makes it onerous to note. Zoom in on the efficiency over the past 12 months, although, and it is a lot clearer how Rivian has outperformed the S&P 500 this yr:
How did Rivian do that, and what are the possibilities the electrical truck firm can preserve its momentum within the absence of tax credit — and within the presence of competitors from Tesla and Cybertruck?
That is onerous to say. Within the firm’s third-quarter earnings report final month, Rivian reported spectacular gross sales progress of 78% yr over yr and constructive gross income on its gross sales. Rivian produced solely 10,720 vans within the quarter, however offered 13,201 — which means the corporate efficiently offered down stock that had been cluttering up its car parking zone.
Rivian nonetheless ended up dropping $1.2 billion for the quarter, nevertheless, and burning via $421 million in unfavourable free money circulation. And this was within the final ever quarter to incorporate federal tax incentives encouraging gross sales, which drove plenty of enterprise Rivian’s method.
Rivian might not be so fortunate in This autumn and subsequent quarters. Administration has excessive hopes because it prepares to start promoting its new R2 electrical SUV in early 2026, noting that its new paint store could have a “complete annual capability to [paint] 215,000 items” — versus the roughly 42,500 Rivians the corporate hopes to promote this yr.
However whereas Rivian could possibly proceed scaling its enterprise even with out authorities help, this is not assured. The truth that Ford Motor Firm simply eliminated itself from the electrical truck market comes as an surprising bit of fine fortune that might assist Rivian succeed — except it is a signal from above that the electrical truck market is not a superb place to be proper now!
