Trump stated there’s “no time strain” on Iran ceasefire negotiations. A everlasting peace deal by April 30 is at
The April 30 peace deal odds dropped from 18% to 14.5% YES after Trump’s feedback. With seven days left, merchants see little likelihood of a breakthrough. The Might 31 odds sit at 36.5% YES, down from 52% a day in the past, whereas June 30 holds at 57.5% YES. The selloff hit each timeframe.
Quantity tells the story. The everlasting peace deal market trades $433,823/day in precise USDC. The order ebook requires $27,970 to maneuver the April 30 odds by 5 factors, that means the market is thick sufficient to withstand wild swings from remoted trades. The biggest single transfer not too long ago was a four-point spike.
Trump’s assertion removes any sense of a deadline, which is precisely what merchants have been pricing in for April 30. A YES share at 14.5¢ pays $1 if a deal is struck, a
Look ahead to bulletins from US envoys heading to Islamabad or Trump posts suggesting a change in tone. An official assembly affirmation or a shift in Trump’s messaging may transfer these odds rapidly.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early entry waitlist.
