DBS Group Analysis expects the Financial Authority of Singapore (MAS) to barely enhance the slope of the Singapore Greenback (SGD) Nominal Efficient Alternate Charge (NEER) coverage band at its 14 April assembly, reversing final yr’s easing. The financial institution sees coverage precedence shifting towards imported inflation as Brent stays close to USD100 and exports stay resilient. MAS can be anticipated to carry its core and headline inflation forecasts alongside sturdy however moderating 1Q26 GDP.
Slope normalisation and inflation improve
“We anticipate the MAS will barely enhance the slope of the SGD NEER coverage band in its April 14 assertion.”
“We view this transfer as a normalisation that reverses final yr’s slope discount to fight the next world inflation panorama pushed by the Center East battle.”
“With Brent crude costs firmly elevated round USD100 per barrel, and exports sustaining resilience, the coverage precedence has pivoted towards addressing imported inflation earlier than it de-anchors underlying worth expectations.”
“To mirror this, we anticipate the MAS to lift its core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.5% (from 1-2%) and the CPI-All Objects projection larger to mirror the present power shock.”
“Additionally to be launched concurrently with the MAS’s coverage resolution are the 1Q26 advance GDP estimates, which we anticipate to register at 5.4% yoy (-1.1% qoq sa), in contrast with 6.3% yoy (2.1% qoq sa) in 4Q25.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence software and reviewed by an editor.)
