A drone view of oil storage containers and amenities of the TotalEnergies refinery within the Leuna Chemical Complicated, in Leuna, Germany, March 17, 2026.
Annegret Hilse | Reuters
Oil costs prolonged beneficial properties after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to assault Iran’s civil infrastructure, warning that the nation will likely be “taken out in a single evening” if the Islamic Republic’s management didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for Could broadened beneficial properties to commerce over 2% greater at $112.41 per barrel as of 11:08 p.m. ET. Brent crude for June supply rose about 1.3% to $109.77 per barrel.
Brent crude costs
On Monday, Trump repeated his risk that the U.S. would destroy Iran’s energy crops and bridges if Tehran didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, whereas additionally signaling that Iranian management was negotiating in earnest.
The closure of the slender waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman has led to a provide shock, sending costs for crude, jet gasoline, diesel, and gasoline hovering for the reason that warfare broke out on Feb. 28.
“They’ve ’til tomorrow,” the president mentioned. “Now we’ll see what occurs. I can let you know, they’re negotiating, we predict in good religion, we’ll discover out. We’re getting the assistance of some unbelievable nations that need this to be ended, as a result of it impacts them additionally.”
Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran had been discussing a framework plan to finish their 5-week-old battle, as Tehran has pushed again in opposition to Trump’s strain to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which might enable site visitors to renew by way of the important power artery.
Iran has rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal, presenting its personal 10-point plan, in response to Axios, together with a everlasting finish to hostilities within the area, relatively than a short lived ceasefire, a protocol for secure passage by way of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction.
However the probabilities of a ceasefire deal being reached earlier than the deadline remained slim, in response to the report.
Trump responded to the proposal, saying that “They made a … important proposal. Not adequate, however they’ve made a really important step. We’ll see what occurs.”
Site visitors trickling by way of
The end result of the peace talks stays murky, mentioned Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Analysis, preserving traders on tenterhooks and caught between pricing in an imminent finish to the battle or additional escalation.
“There is no such thing as a option to predict the result. We won’t rule out that Iran will collapse. Or, Trump could postpone the deadline once more, explaining that negotiations are making progress. Or the warfare will escalate,” Yardeni mentioned. “The fog of warfare stays thick.”
Transport by way of the Strait of Hormuz has slowly resumed, with 8 tankers transiting Monday, up from the typical of fewer than 2 transits per day in March, in response to S&P International Market Intelligence. That, nonetheless, is a fraction of pre-war ranges, with a median of 20 million barrels of crude oil and merchandise transiting the strait per day in 2025.
“It’s an enchancment on the margin when it comes to flows from [the Strait of Hormuz],” mentioned Michael Wan, senior foreign money analyst at MUFG Analysis, noting that the trail in the direction of peace stays “slender and unlikely” given the extensive hole in expectations amongst totally different events within the battle.
A full resumption of site visitors by way of the strait would nonetheless take a while for the precise provide to stream by way of to Asian economies going through imminent power scarcity, mentioned Wan, who expects a timeline of “not less than 3 to six months.”
