Iran rejects ceasefire, calls for everlasting decision amid rising tensions

Iran has rejected a ceasefire, demanding a everlasting decision as tensions rise. The percentages for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% from 2% yesterday.

This rejection follows Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical plant and the killing of the IRGC intelligence chief. The April 7 market is at 1% YES, with solely 4 days till decision. Odds have fallen from 12% per week in the past. The April 30 market is at 18% YES, displaying skepticism about de-escalation regardless of Trump’s ultimate deadline.

Merchants anticipate potential catalysts in early Might, with odds leaping from 18% on April 30 to 36% by Might 31. The outlook is bearish for a fast ceasefire, given latest navy actions and Trump’s hardline stance.

US-Iran ceasefire markets present quantity at $431K in USDC over 24 hours. Transferring the worth 5 factors for the April 15 market requires $40K, indicating restricted liquidity. The most important latest transfer was a 2-point spike for April 30, possible resulting from a big order.

The ceasefire rejection and IRGC killing enhance instability in Iran, elevating regime fall odds. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market rose to 14%, up from 12% yesterday. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 7x return. Merchants should consider inside instability may result in regime collapse inside 88 days.

Merchants ought to watch Trump’s language for indicators of ‘productive’ talks or new intermediaries, which could elevate odds. Extra strikes or retaliations may additional lower ceasefire probabilities. Monitor IRGC actions and diplomatic efforts from Qatar and Oman for market shifts.

Markets Impacted

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