Iran has launched footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened to focus on Zionist embassies if attacked. The chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday however down from 20% every week in the past.
The footage and threats spotlight Iran’s navy functionality and management stability. The June 30 market reveals a slight enhance however stays decrease than final week. With 88 days left, the numerous drop over the week suggests merchants are reassessing expectations of regime stability below Mojtaba Khamenei’s management.
Commerce quantity is at $59,602 in USDC each day, with $195,747 wanted to shift the chances by 5 factors. This means a well-capitalized market immune to speedy swings from small trades. The most important current value transfer was a modest 1-point spike at 7:21 PM.
Iran’s navy actions and threats to increase targets past navy websites help the notion of regime cohesion. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a possible 7x return. Merchants betting on regime collapse must foresee main inner fractures or worldwide intervention inside the subsequent three months.
Look ahead to IRGC actions and statements from the Meeting of Specialists. Any signal of inner dissent or sudden public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei might considerably shift the chances.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early entry waitlist.
