The Israeli Broadcasting Authority experiences that US-Iran negotiations have stalled. The chances for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to eight% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% final week.
Merchants are adjusting their expectations for a ceasefire. The April 7 market is pessimistic at 8% YES. The April 15 market exhibits barely higher odds at 20%, however skepticism stays. Odds for April 30 rise to 40%, suggesting merchants anticipate a attainable catalyst in mid-April.
Quantity at $1,356,072 in USDC was traded over the previous 24 hours, with $46,774 wanted to maneuver the April 7 market by 5 factors. The biggest worth transfer was a 3-point drop at 9:56 PM, reflecting bearish sentiment. The market is delicate to information movement.
The stalled talks recommend no quick diplomatic breakthrough, maintaining army escalation a danger. Merchants have adjusted, dropping odds for a near-term ceasefire. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved—a 12.5x return if a last-minute diplomatic resolution happens.
Look ahead to CENTCOM statements and any middleman actions from Oman or Qatar. Adjustments in rhetoric or new negotiations might shift odds.
Markets Impacted
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