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Bitcoin is on the point of a six-month streak of month-to-month losses, a uncommon prevalence in its historical past.
With almost six straight crimson month-to-month candles already printed, March’s closing worth will settle the matter: a inexperienced candle would break the sequence and sign reduction, whereas one other loss might verify an prolonged bearish part.
Each prior stretch of extended month-to-month drawdowns has been adopted by highly effective reversals, Crypto Patel revealed. For example, the multi-month droop in 2015 gave approach to a run that reached $20,000, the 2018 episode preceded a climb to $69,000, and the 2022 downturn in the end led to a surge topping $108,000.
Momentum is undeniably mushy proper now, but the darkest candles have repeatedly appeared simply earlier than the market’s largest rallies. All eyes are on this month’s shut.
Right here’s one other optimistic historic sample recognised by Ali Martinez. Since 2011, the identical fractal has marked the ultimate low cost window forward of each main Bitcoin bull market. If it holds, the cryptocurrency might be coming into that golden entry zone between October 6 and October 16, 2026, with costs possible settling within the $41,500–$45,000 vary.
 
Now, technical analyst thescalpingpro agrees that the underside could also be shut. Bitcoin has been in a gentle downtrend since October 2025, already correcting roughly 50% from its all-time excessive. The 200-week and 300-week shifting averages have been dependable assist in previous cycles: worth bottomed on the 200 WMA in 2018, on the 300 WMA through the 2020 COVID crash, and close to the 300 WMA after the 2022 FTX collapse.
At press time, CoinMarketCap information reveals Bitcoin up 2.11% to $70,880.07 over the previous 24h, outpacing a broadly rising crypto market, pushed by a sign of geopolitical de-escalation.
The principle catalyst is the geopolitical de-escalation following President Trump’s March 23 announcement of a five-day pause on U.S. strikes towards Iran. If the de-escalation holds by the five-day pause (ending ~ March 28), Bitcoin might consolidate above $70,150. Nevertheless, a breakdown beneath $68,420 would sign bearish strain from macro fears.
