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Egg costs have declined quickly over the past 12 months because the market normalizes following a big avian flu outbreak that started in 2022, although the specter of a resurgence within the virus might result in volatility later this 12 months.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported the shopper worth index (CPI) for February, which confirmed egg costs declined by 3.8% within the month and are down 42.1% from a 12 months in the past. Against this, headline CPI inflation was 2.4% larger than it was a 12 months in the past.
Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, advised FOX Enterprise that the U.S. egg business has been on a “rollercoaster of avian influenza detection” since 2022, with detections starting from about 20 million birds affected to just about zero birds, relying on the time of 12 months.
“Due to this, we have had occasions when the laying flock was broken sufficient to essentially drive costs larger,” Nelson mentioned. He added {that a} dozen eggs value round $4.14 in December 2024 and climbed to a excessive of $6.22 a dozen in March 2025 – however these have since declined to about $2.50 a dozen, in keeping with information from the BLS and the U.S. Division of Agriculture’s (USDA) Financial Analysis Service.
FEBRUARY INFLATION BREAKDOWN: WHERE ARE PRICES RISING AND FALLING THE FASTEST?
Egg costs have been on a roller-coaster in recent times amid provide disruptions attributable to an avian flu outbreak. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg through Getty Photographs)
Nelson added that as of December 2025, egg costs have been about 12% beneath the five-year common because the market recovered from the avian flu-related worth shocks. The stabilization of the market comes because the USDA has stepped up detection actions to assist mitigate outbreaks.
“USDA has made some dramatic enhancements within the final 12 months,” he defined, noting that the company presents a wildlife evaluation that appears for methods wild birds could infiltrate an egg farm in addition to a home evaluation that considers methods to advertise agricultural hygiene resembling enterprise a foot bathtub earlier than getting into an egg layer home.
“USDA presents these freed from cost after which it turns into as much as the egg farmer to implement the modifications that they should assist safe their farm,” Nelson mentioned, including that it has “dramatically improved the power to maintain provides within the pipeline.”
INFLATION HELD STEADY IN FEBRUARY AND REMAINED ABOVE THE FED’S TARGET
Egg costs have declined quickly over the past 12 months as the provision chain normalized from the avian flu outbreak. (I RYU/VCG through Getty Photographs)
Within the final six months, the slowdown in avian flu circumstances has allowed manufacturing to get better and enhance, bringing costs beneath the extent they have been at earlier than the bigger outbreak started.
Nonetheless, the USDA’s wildlife monitoring has discovered a really excessive viral load in wild migratory birds passing by all 4 of the flyways that cross the U.S. from south to north in latest months, which might impression the egg, turkey and broiler industries.
Nelson famous that within the final 30 days there have been about 14 million birds affected, which was larger than a number of the decrease caseload months throughout the provide chain normalization.
HOW THE IRAN WAR COULD HIT AMERICANS’ GROCERY BILLS
Egg costs stay inclined to volatility as farmers proceed to handle avian flu detections. (Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP through Getty Photographs)
He mentioned there have been about 4 million detections in March general, principally attributed to 2 comparatively massive avian flu detections introduced this week that lined 4 million birds at egg manufacturing amenities.
“What that demonstrates is which you can have virtually no detections happening, it may be only a actually low, easy crusing state of affairs, and hastily you’ll be able to have a detection at one in all these larger farms and when that detection it will possibly take plenty of layers out of the pipeline in a short time,” Nelson mentioned.
“We’re not seeing the impacts of that offer change but, but when we see avian influenza proceed to have an effect on homes like that the place you are seeing a excessive variety of birds affected month to month, it will possibly very properly push costs again up,” he added.
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Nelson mentioned that when egg farmers’ flocks are impacted by avian flu it will possibly take an emotional toll on the farmers in addition to trigger monetary hurt, as USDA indemnity packages cowl issues like cleanup prices however does not cowl the manufacturing stoppage that may last as long as six months.
