The U.S. Client Value Index rose 0.3% month-over-month in February 2026, assembly consensus expectations and holding the annual inflation fee regular at 2.4%, based on knowledge launched Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Nonetheless, the broadly in-line report was instantly overshadowed by the continued U.S.-Israel struggle on Iran, which has despatched oil costs surging and raised fears that inflation may transfer sharply larger within the months forward.
Key Takeaways
- Headline CPI held regular at 2.4% year-over-year, matching forecasts and unchanged from January
- Core CPI (ex-food & power) rose 0.2% month-to-month — a deceleration from January’s 0.3% — and a couple of.5% yearly, additionally matching expectations
- The info predates the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran on February 28, that means the power shock that has since pushed gasoline costs up ~20% is not going to present up till the March report
February’s inflation report got here in largely as anticipated, providing a relaxed snapshot of worth pressures. Nonetheless, merchants shortly brushed it off as previous information.
The info displays costs collected earlier than the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28. Since then, crude oil has surged. Many analysts now anticipate headline inflation to maneuver again above 3% in Q2 as larger power prices work their method by way of the financial system, with some projecting month-to-month CPI good points of 0.9 to 1.0% in March alone.
Hyperlink to official BLS U.S. CPI Report (February 2026)
Contained in the report, shelter disinflation continued its sluggish grind, with hire posting its smallest month-to-month improve in 5 years. Core items stayed contained, helped by the third straight drop in used car costs. However tariff pass-through is beginning to present up in attire and family furnishings.
- Shelter: Rose 0.2% for the month, the most important single contributor to headline inflation; annual shelter inflation slowed to three.0%
- Hire: Climbed solely 0.1% — the smallest month-to-month achieve since January 2021
- Meals: Up 0.4% for the month and three.1% year-over-year
- Vitality: Gained 0.6%, pushed by a 0.8% rise in gasoline and an 11.1% surge in gasoline oil; electrical energy fell 0.7%
- Attire: Jumped 1.3% — the largest month-to-month achieve since September 2018 — reflecting continued tariff pass-through
- Used automobiles: Fell 0.4% for the third straight month-to-month decline; new car costs have been flat
- Medical care: Rose 0.5% on the month, up 3.4% year-over-year
- Airline fares: Elevated 1.4%, with steeper rises anticipated forward as jet gasoline prices climb
There’s additionally a lingering knowledge high quality concern. The 43-day authorities shutdown final fall compelled the BLS to estimate lacking October knowledge, and a few economists imagine which will have understated CPI by roughly 0.3 to 0.4 share factors.
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Market Response
United States Greenback vs. Main Currencies: 5-min
Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart Sooner with TradingView
The U.S. greenback was already edging larger forward of the 8:30 AM ET launch as rising oil costs and geopolitical stress stored danger sentiment cautious. The greenback briefly popped on the headline earlier than shortly pulling again, for the reason that in-line knowledge supplied no new catalyst.
From round 10:30 AM onward, the Buck resumed its broader climb as Treasury yields pushed larger. By the U.S. shut, the greenback had prolonged good points towards most main currencies, with USD/JPY main the transfer whereas USD/CHF and USD/EUR additionally climbed greater than 0.20% on the day.
The muted response on the launch and the regular grind larger afterward mirrored the broader backdrop. With the Fed extensively anticipated to carry charges on the March 17 to 18 assembly, an in-line CPI report did little to shift coverage expectations.
As a substitute, rising Treasury yields and the geopolitical backdrop stored demand for the greenback agency as merchants seemed previous the February knowledge and towards what might come subsequent, an inflation rebound pushed by surging power costs.
