Could NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) on Friday closed up +0.38 (+2.77%), and Could London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed up +8.00 (+1.97%).
Sugar costs settled sharply greater on Friday amid hovering crude oil costs. WTI crude oil (CLJ26) surged greater than +12% on Friday to a 2.5-year excessive, which advantages ethanol costs and will immediate the world’s sugar mills to divert extra cane crushing towards ethanol manufacturing fairly than sugar, thus curbing sugar provides.
On February 12, sugar costs plunged to five.25-year nearest-futures lows on concern {that a} world sugar surplus will persist. On February 11, analysts from sugar dealer Czarnikow stated they count on a world sugar surplus of three.4 MMT within the 2026/27 crop yr, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Additionally, Inexperienced Pool Commodity Specialists stated on January 29 that they count on a 2.74 MMT world sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. In the meantime, StoneX stated February 13 that it expects a world sugar surplus of two.9 MMT in 2025/26.
Final Friday, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, beneath an earlier projection of +1.63 AMMT. That follows a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25. ISO stated the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in world sugar manufacturing to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26.
Indicators of decrease sugar output in Brazil are supportive of sugar costs, after Unica on February 18 reported that sugar manufacturing in Brazil’s Middle-South within the second half of January fell by -36% y/y to solely 5,000 MT. Nonetheless, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by means of January is up by +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25.
Consulting agency Safras & Mercado stated on December 23 that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s sugar exports in 2026/27 to fall by -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation (ISMA) reported immediately that India’s 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Feb 28 was up +12% y/y to 24.75 MMT. Final Wednesday, the ISMA projected India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, beneath an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT. The ISMA additionally minimize its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
