Friday, March sixth, 2026
This morning, the Employment State of affairs report for February from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) got here out at a disappointing headline determine of -92K, nicely under the +50K analysts had been anticipating, and a fair larger drop from the downwardly revised +126K for January. The Unemployment Fee bumped again up 10 foundation factors (bps) to +4.4%.
Harsh climate situations final month performed a task, as did a 41-day nursing strike which helped take Healthcare sector numbers to -28K for the month. Nevertheless, downward revisions actually struck the December print, which went from +50K initially reported to -17K in at this time’s report. There’s no blaming climate or strike situations for this. We now see a trailing four-month common on BLS jobs at -21K per 30 days — the primary adverse common because the Covid pandemic.
Healthcare, as we stated, shed -28K positions final month, whereas each Data Programs and Transportation/Warehousing dropped -11K and Authorities jobs sank by -10K. Social Help jobs stayed afloat at +9K, however any approach you slice it, this was a nasty employment report. Over the previous yr, Transportation/Warehousing has misplaced -157K jobs, -2.4%.
Vivid spots are slight: Hourly Wages, each month over month and yr over yr, added +10 bps from expectations, to +0.4% and +3.8%, respectively. The Common Workweek dropped to 33.8 hours, Labor Drive Participation slipped to +62.0% (the bottom since December 2021) and the U-6 (aka “actual unemployment”) got here in at +7.9%.
Retail Gross sales Higher than Anticipated for January
Hopefully, this might be one of many remaining authorities shutdown-delayed financial reviews: Retail Gross sales for January carried out higher than anticipated at -0.2%, from the -0.4% analysts had been anticipating, although nonetheless decrease than the unrevised 0.0% from the prior month. Ex-autos, this numbers turned flat as nicely, although subtracting autos and fuel we see this determine climb to +0.3%, above the +0.2% projected.
What to Anticipate from the Inventory Market At present
Pre-market futures are sinking like a stone at this hour, partly as a result of weak BLS numbers, but in addition after we filter the rising oil costs — now pushing upwards of $90 per barrel (bbl); we had been at $55/bbl just a few quick weeks in the past — and President Trump’s all-caps message this morning for Iran’s “unconditional give up.” The Dow is at the moment -1.37%, the S&P 500 -1.27%, the Nasdaq -1.56% and the small-cap Russell 2000 -2.29%.
Imagine it or not, the Russell remains to be buying and selling within the inexperienced yr thus far — although for the way lengthy? After a hopeful (quick) interval in late January, we now see main indexes -2-3%, with apparently extra room to fall on the draw back. Maybe traders will transfer heroically as soon as once more to bounce again from examined lows, however sooner or later we could must search for some real items information to anticipate markets to rise from right here.
After the opening bell, Enterprise Inventories for December are anticipated to be in-line with the earlier month at +0.1%, whereas Client Credit score for January is anticipated to have dwindled to +$11 billion from +$24 billion later this afternoon. However in the end it’s going to take one thing larger, with larger upward strikes, to re-set at this time’s market in additional favorable phrases.
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