The Perseus Star crude oil tanker departs the Port of Corpus Christi in Corpus Christi, Texas, US, on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026.
Eddie Seal | Bloomberg | Getty Photographs
Crude oil costs are anticipated to leap when buying and selling opens Sunday night, as market individuals concern battle between the U.S. and Iran will spiral uncontrolled and result in a serious provide disruption.
The huge wave of airstrikes launched by the U.S. and Israel in opposition to Iran have killed Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and different high leaders within the Islamic Republic. See the most recent developments right here.
Kalshi prediction markets at present see a 79% chance that U.S. crude oil hits a minimum of $73 per barrel or extra. U.S. crude closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday, having run up 17% to this point this yr in anticipation of a doable Iran assault. Power futures start buying and selling at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Brent crude oil, the worldwide benchmark, might see even larger positive aspects. Brent futures closed Friday at $73.21 a barrel on Friday, up 20% to this point this yr.
It’s unclear who will in the end govern the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC. How the oil market in the end reacts will rely on whether or not the battle results in a protracted disruption to site visitors via the Strait of Hormuz, a very powerful chokepoint on this planet for the worldwide oil commerce.
Crude oil futures, YTD
President Donald Trump stated Sunday that Iran desires to speak and he has agreed to take action, leaving open the chance that there may be a path to de-escalation that avoids an enormous, extended disruption.
“They wish to discuss, and I’ve agreed to speak, so I shall be speaking to them,” Trump advised The Atlantic on Sunday. The president advised CNBC that U.S. navy operations in Iran are “forward of schedule.”
However tanker site visitors via the Strait has already successfully come to a halt as transport firms take precautionary measures, in response to consulting agency Rystad Power. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures might spike by $20 when buying and selling opens, the agency forecast Saturday.
“Tankers are beginning to construct by the Strait of Hormuz, however nothing appears to be going via in the intervening time – tankers are positively spooked,” stated Matt Smith, oil analyst at vitality consulting agency Kpler.
Greater than 14 million barrels per day handed via the Strait on common in 2025, or a couple of third of the world’s complete seaborne crude exports, in response to Kpler knowledge. About three-quarters of these exports go to China, India, Japan and South Korea, in response to the agency.
Different analysts see a extra modest bounce relying on how the battle develops. Costs ought to rise by a minimum of $3 to $5 per barrel when buying and selling begins, stated Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The worst-case state of affairs is an assault by Iran on Saudi oil infrastrucure adopted by an entire closure of the Strait, Lipow stated Sunday. Oil costs would bounce by $10 to $20 on this state of affairs, the analyst stated, which he put at a 33% chance.
Brent crude oil futures, YTD
Barclays stated Brent might hit $100 per barrel when buying and selling begins because the market grapples the specter of a possible provide disruption.
“How this ends is extraordinarily unsure at this level however within the meantime oil markets should face their worst fears,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh advised shoppers in a notice Saturday. “The potential impact on oil markets is difficult to overstate.”
