A small group of crypto wallets gained greater than $1.2 million betting on a Polymarket contract tied to an onchain investigation into decentralized finance (DeFi) buying and selling platform Axiom, fueling contemporary issues that prediction markets can reward folks with advance data of market-moving disclosures.
The eight most worthwhile wallets available on the market collectively made about $1.2 million, in accordance to buying and selling knowledge compiled on Dune. The identical dataset confirmed greater than 50 wallets posting mixed losses of roughly $1.23 million, whereas two wallets misplaced about $366,000.
Eight out of the highest 10 wallets are possible insider addresses, judging by their onchain transaction patterns, in accordance to onchain researcher Defioasis. “There are 3 addresses that achieved earnings exceeding $100,000, all of that are insider addresses that traded solely this single market,” stated the researcher in a Friday X put up.
ZachXBT launched the much-anticipated investigation on Thursday, alleging that Axiom worker Broox Bauer and others had been accountable for insider buying and selling exercise since early 2025.
In an X response to the incident, Axiom stated it was “shocked and disenchanted” within the information and that it had eliminated entry to the instruments that had been used within the alleged insider buying and selling.
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Prediction markets increase insider buying and selling allegations
Insider buying and selling issues in prediction markets mounted in early January after a extremely worthwhile guess on the elimination of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro by the US raised eyebrows.
On Jan. 3, a Polymarket account positioned a guess on a contract predicting that Maduro can be faraway from workplace simply hours earlier than US forces captured him in a navy operation, netting the consumer about $400,000 in revenue.
US lawmakers have since proposed laws geared toward limiting political prediction market buying and selling by authorities officers, including to the regulatory highlight on the sector.
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Polymarket faces rising regulatory scrutiny on playing issues
Polymarket, the most important decentralized prediction market, has confronted mounting regulatory strain in a number of international locations the place authorities have argued that the platform gives unlicensed playing.
Hungary and Portugal blocked entry to the platform in January, citing issues associated to forbidden playing actions.
Every week earlier, Ukraine blocked Polymarket, classifying its actions as unlicensed playing underneath nationwide legislation.
Polymarket has additionally been restricted or blocked in a number of different international locations over playing issues, together with France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland.
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