Trump stated beef, egg, hen costs are falling: What the information exhibits

President Donald Trump stated in his State of the Union speech Tuesday evening that his administration’s insurance policies have been “quickly ending” excessive costs for sure meals, together with proteins within the U.S. eating regimen, like beef, hen and eggs.

Nevertheless, costs for hen and beef have elevated since Trump took workplace in January 2025.

Egg costs have certainly fallen considerably — however, like beef costs, have been influenced extra by provide and demand components particular to these markets than federal coverage, based on agricultural economists.

The value strikes additionally come because the Trump administration stated it was “ending the struggle on protein” by saying new U.S. vitamin tips that emphasize protein, full-fat dairy and greens.

“President Trump is true: inflation has cooled, and costs of many on a regular basis necessities have fallen or are on the fitting trajectory,” White Home spokesman Kush Desai stated in an emailed assertion. “The whole Administration stays laser-focused on delivering financial reduction for the American individuals.”

Trump stated throughout his State of the Union tackle that beef costs are “beginning to come down considerably.”

Federal information exhibits that beef costs have began to say no in some instances, however stay close to multiyear or document highs.

Floor beef price $6.75 per pound, on common, in January — the very best stage on document, based on information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Costs have elevated 22% over the previous 12 months, from $5.55 per pound in January 2025, when Trump began his second time period. That is the quickest annual inflation charge since June 2020, throughout Trump’s first time period in workplace.

Costs for different cuts of beef are additionally elevated, based on federal information.

For instance, the worth of raw beef steaks was $12.30 per pound, on common, in January, down barely from an all-time excessive of $12.51 per pound in December, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics information. Costs are up 13% over the previous 12 months.

Raw beef roasts price $8.82 per pound, on common, in January, down from a document excessive of $9.29 per pound in November. Common costs are up 14% prior to now 12 months.

Beef costs are “nonetheless up considerably” over the previous 12 months, stated Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist on the Wells Fargo Agri-Meals Institute.

A latest decline in costs is “very poor comfort for most individuals,” Swanson stated.

At a excessive stage, beef costs have elevated as a result of decrease cattle provide and elevated demand amongst U.S. households, based on agricultural economists.

It is a “double whammy,” stated Charley Martinez, an assistant professor and director of the Division of Agricultural and Useful resource Economics on the College of Tennessee.

On the provision facet, the stock of U.S. cattle is at its lowest in many years, based on federal information.

There have been 27.6 million beef cows within the U.S. as of Jan. 1, based on the U.S. Division of Agriculture. That is the lowest provide of those cows — that are earmarked for the meat market — since 1961, based on USDA historic information tracked by Martinez.

There have been about 86.2 million general U.S. cattle — together with different sorts like these for milk manufacturing — as of Jan. 1, the bottom tally since 1951, based on USDA information.

Many components have contributed to the putting decline within the U.S. cattle herd, Bernt Nelson, an economist on the American Farm Bureau Federation, a commerce group, wrote in October.

Persistent drought has precipitated “deteriorating” pasture circumstances for cows, Nelson wrote.

Good pasture circumstances decrease prices to boost cattle, whereas poor circumstances power farmers and ranchers to ship in hay from different components of the nation, contributing to document prices to boost and feed cattle, he stated. In consequence, many farmers offered off feminine cows moderately than conserving them to provide calves, he stated.

“It is arduous to provide extra beef once you lack the cattle to try this,” stated Amy Smith, a meals economist at Superior Financial Options.

It additionally takes a very long time, about three years, to breed cows for the meat market, she stated.

In the meantime, demand for beef amongst U.S. households has elevated at the same time as costs have risen, economists stated.

The Retail All Recent Beef Demand Index in 2025 touched its highest ranges since not less than 2000, Martinez stated of USDA information.

“Covid-19 and the entire pandemic drove loads of new demand,” Martinez stated. “Everybody turned yard grilling heroes. …There’s been this modification within the style and choice for beef that we have by no means seen earlier than.”

Economists stated they do not imagine beef costs will proceed to fall within the close to time period as a result of provide and demand dynamics within the beef market.

The Trump administration has sought to spice up provide via insurance policies that incentivize beef imports from international locations corresponding to Argentina. Imports have been already at document highs in 2025, based on Nelson of the farm bureau.

Nevertheless, such market interventions have the “unintended consequence” of decreasing costs paid to U.S. cattle farmers, Nelson wrote.

Elevated imports “would add one other barrier to rising the cattle herd and probably incentivize extra contraction within the cattle stock,” he wrote. “This might drive beef costs even larger and improve U.S. reliance on imported beef to satisfy home demand.”

Trump stated Tuesday that the worth of eggs is down 60%.

That determine is according to Bureau of Labor Statistics information, which exhibits the common worth for a dozen massive Grade A eggs has declined about 59% from March 2025 to $2.58 per dozen in January, from a document excessive of $6.23 per dozen.

Costs are down 48% from January 2025, once they have been $4.95 per dozen.

A lot of that decline is a reversion to extra typical costs following a provide shock triggered by a historic outbreak of chook flu, based on economists.

“We’re seeing exceptional drops [in price] from astounding highs,” stated Swanson of the Wells Fargo Agri-Meals Institute.

“Extremely pathogenic avian influenza,” extra generally referred to as chook flu, propelled egg costs to dizzying highs in late 2024 and early 2025, economists stated.

The illness is extremely contagious and deadly for birds, together with chickens on business egg farms. To forestall unfold, farmers should kill their complete flock in the event that they detect a case, economists stated.

In all, tens of thousands and thousands of egg-laying chickens died. For instance, greater than 38 million business egg-laying birds died in 2024, based on USDA information tracked by the College of Arkansas. Over 20 million extra died in early 2025.

Since 2022, when the outbreak started, the U.S. has misplaced greater than 140 million egg-laying chickens, stated Smith of Superior Financial Options.

“You simply cannot rebound rapidly from that,” she stated.

Whereas the illness hasn’t disappeared, it to this point hasn’t been “almost as impactful” in late 2025 and into 2026, Smith stated.

Client demand has additionally doubtless fallen as costs surged, serving to to ease costs on the grocery retailer, she stated. Costs could rise over the following a number of weeks because the Easter vacation approaches, which is just like the Tremendous Bowl for the egg business, she stated.

Trump additionally stated Tuesday that the price of hen is “decrease right this moment than after I took workplace by rather a lot.”

Nevertheless, common costs for hen are up about 1% over the previous 12 months, based on the client worth index. Customers paid $4.17 per pound of boneless hen breast in January, on common, up from $3.97 per pound a 12 months earlier, based on BLS information.

Fowl flu hasn’t had as vital an affect on chickens raised for meat consumption as for chickens raised for egg manufacturing, economists stated.