UOB World Economics & Markets Analysis highlights that Thailand’s financial system stays a low‑progress, low‑inflation outlier, whilst authorities challenge modest enchancment in 2026 and 2027. Regardless of some upside dangers to close‑time period progress, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a closing 25 bps coverage fee reduce on the upcoming BOT assembly.
Low progress and inflation justify additional easing
“Wanting forward, the authorities challenge 2026 progress at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%.”
“Whereas noting the upside dangers to the near-term progress outlook, we keep our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%), earlier than a rebound to 2.5% in 2027.”
“Past 2026, Thailand stands out as a low progress/low inflation financial system relative to the worldwide backdrop, reinforcing that the constraint is just not solely cyclical demand but additionally structural potential progress.”
“We keep our view that the BOT is more likely to reduce the coverage fee (1-day repurchase fee) by 25bps to 1.00% on the 25 Feb 2026 MPC assembly, from 1.25% at the moment.”
“We see this because the terminal fee for the cycle.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
