MUFG’s Senior Foreign money Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand is extensively anticipated to maintain the Official Money Fee unchanged at its first 2026 assembly (Feb 18), after signalling November’s lower was the final of the cycle. Nonetheless, markets have began to cost a attainable charge hike by Q3, making any hawkish change in steerage a key focus for NZD merchants.
Coverage on maintain however hike danger priced
“The RBNZ will maintain its first coverage assembly of 2026 this week. The central financial institution is extensively anticipated to depart the OCR on maintain, having delivered what was signalled to be the ultimate charge lower of the easing cycle in November.”
“The RBNZ has indicated that charges are prone to stay unchanged all through 2026, however markets have already begun to cost in the potential of a charge hike as early as Q3 this yr.”
“Because of this, market individuals will likely be watching intently for any indicators of a hawkish shift within the RBNZ’s coverage steerage.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence instrument and reviewed by an editor.)
