Commonplace Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 GDP progress forecast to eight.0% from 3.8%, citing sturdy This autumn-2025 growth and strong world semiconductor demand. The financial institution expects financial momentum to remain agency by 2026, supported by booming ICT and electronics exports and a latest US commerce deal, whereas progress stays uneven and earnings disparity could widen.
AI-driven export growth lifts outlook
“We elevate our 2026 GDP progress forecast to eight.0% (from 3.8%) following sturdy This autumn-2025 progress of 12.7% y/y and 2025 progress of 8.7%. The forecast improve partly displays This autumn’s sturdy q/q progress momentum (at 5.4%). Whereas we count on some statistical payback in Q1-2026 following This autumn’s unusually excessive progress, financial momentum is prone to stay strong by 2026 as we count on world semiconductor demand to stay on an upcycle and help Taiwan’s exports.”
“In truth, exports grew 70% y/y in January forward of the Lunar New 12 months holidays in February (following 49.4% progress in This autumn-2025), as shipments of ICT merchandise and digital parts surged.”
“Additionally, the latest commerce take care of the US would supply a reduction to exporters, given the US accounted for 30% of Taiwan’s exports.”
“Progress will possible stay uneven and additional widen the family earnings disparity.”
“We proceed to count on the CBC to take care of selective credit score management measures to curb property-related borrowing.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
