MUFG’s Michael Wan views the detailed US–India interim commerce deal, together with tariff cuts and exemptions, as optimistic for India’s exterior place. He sees scope for USD/INR to briefly break under 90 in coming months, however expects solely a shallow INR restoration. MUFG forecasts USD/INR at 89.50 in Q1 2026 earlier than rising again to 93.00 by year-end on FDI repatriation and wider deficits.
Tariff cuts assist however upside later
“USD/INR: US and India supplied extra particulars across the interim commerce deal. General we expect it’s a optimistic, and we forecast USD/INR at 89.50 by March 2026 and 93.00 by Dec 2026”
“General, we proceed to suppose there’s a good likelihood for USD/INR to interrupt under the 90 degree over the subsequent few months however it will seemingly be a shallow restoration to succeed in”
“89.50 in 1Q2026.”
“Over time, we proceed to see USD/INR rising to 93.00 by 4Q2026, pushed by continued FDI repatriation and import wants with a wider present account deficit.”
“General we view the small print as optimistic, however some potential political pushback in India on a number of the agricultural associated concessions.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
