Brazil set to dominate China soybean imports in early 2026 as costs undercut U.S.

Brazil’s value benefit and file harvest place it to deepen its dominance of China’s soybean imports in early 2026, regardless of renewed U.S. provide.

Abstract:

• China set to elevate Brazilian soybean imports in early 2026

• Report South American output retains Brazilian costs dominant

• U.S. purchases concentrated amongst state-owned patrons solely

• Tariffs and pricing sideline non-public Chinese language crushers from U.S. cargoes

• Brazil anticipated to widen market share by mid-year

China is anticipated to ramp up imports of Brazilian soybeans within the first half of 2026, as a file South American harvest and sharply decrease costs reinforce Brazil’s dominance on the planet’s largest oilseed market, at the same time as U.S. provides return later within the yr.

Non-public Chinese language crushers have been locking in Brazilian cargoes for cargo from February onward as harvesting accelerates, swelling provide and miserable costs. Merchants say the pricing benefit is more likely to persist by mid-year, weighing on demand for U.S. soybeans when the North American export season begins in September.

Current U.S. soybean purchases, roughly 12 million tonnes since late October, have been made solely by state-owned patrons, together with Sinograin and COFCO, following a thaw in bilateral ties. Non-public merchants have largely stayed on the sidelines, citing greater U.S. costs and China’s 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans, in contrast with a 3% responsibility on Brazilian provides.

In accordance with analysts, present U.S. shopping for is adequate to keep up a constructive political backdrop forward of the April leaders’ assembly, however is unlikely to develop materially with out additional tariff aid or political assurances. Even when Beijing instructs state companies to elevate purchases to satisfy commerce commitments, non-public crushers are anticipated to favour Brazil on value grounds.

Brazilian soybeans stay meaningfully cheaper on each FOB and cost-and-freight bases, with merchants anticipating the worth hole to widen as harvest stress builds. Analysts say China is more likely to maximise Brazilian imports by March–June, supported by beneficial crush margins and robust soymeal demand tied to China’s still-large pig herd.

With Brazil forecast to provide a file 182.2 million tonnes in 2025/26 and exports to China anticipated to rise, South America’s grip on China’s soybean market appears set to strengthen, leaving U.S. suppliers reliant on political directives relatively than business demand.