We got here throughout a bullish thesis on Eli Lilly and Firm on Kontra Investments’s Substack by Kontra. On this article, we’ll summarize the bulls’ thesis on LLY. Eli Lilly and Firm’s share was buying and selling at $724.54 as of September twenty sixth. LLY’s trailing and ahead P/E had been 47.36 and 24.04 respectively based on Yahoo Finance.
Photograph by Matt C on Unsplash
Few firms have captured investor consideration like Eli Lilly, which has emerged because the chief within the weight problems remedy megatrend, powered by its injectable therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound. The current Part 3 ATTAIN-2 trial of orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 candidate, represents a pivotal milestone, demonstrating 10.5% whole weight reduction at 72 weeks in sufferers with weight problems and sort 2 diabetes—akin to semaglutide—whereas providing the comfort of an oral tablet.
This validates orforglipron’s scientific profile and considerably expands the business alternative past Lilly’s injectables, as oral formulations are anticipated to drive broader adoption in main care and seize sufferers reluctant to provoke injections. Strategically, orforglipron enhances Lilly’s present portfolio, making a full-spectrum remedy ecosystem from oral to injectable therapies, strengthening affected person retention and market share. The corporate’s broader weight problems technique emphasizes depth with extremely efficient twincretins, breadth with oral and pipeline property, and sturdiness by substantial manufacturing investments.
Current prescription traits present Lilly sustaining management in weight problems therapies, with Zepbound prescriptions rising and starter doses stabilizing after formulary shifts, highlighting a aggressive however sustainable setting. Regardless of buying and selling at premium multiples of twenty-two–23x ahead earnings, valuation is supported by robust projected income progress, increasing gross margins, excessive returns on invested capital, and accelerating money move, with web debt anticipated to show into web money by 2026.
Dangers embody pricing pressures, manufacturing bottlenecks, and pipeline uncertainties, however the validated orforglipron launch and layered portfolio improve long-term progress visibility. Total, Lilly’s strategic positioning in weight problems, coupled with a diversified, sturdy portfolio, positions the corporate for sustained double-digit progress, providing compelling long-term funding potential.
Beforehand we lined a bullish thesis on Eli Lilly and Firm (LLY) by Kontra in Could 2025, which highlighted the corporate’s management in weight problems and diabetes therapeutics, robust income progress from Mounjaro and Zepbound, and near-term pipeline catalysts. The corporate’s inventory value has depreciated roughly by 8.75% since our protection. The thesis nonetheless stands as Lilly’s long-term progress stays sturdy. Kontra shares the same perspective however emphasizes the ATTAIN-2 outcomes for orforglipron, highlighting the strategic worth of oral GLP-1s in increasing adoption and strengthening Lilly’s weight problems portfolio.
