Nobody seems to be sensible calling for inventory markets to go up, however you possibly can look sensible otherwise you might be proper so this is what I am considering:
The market received skittish in October.
To me, it wasn’t any single factor however an entire bunch directly:
- September noticed an intense rally in inventory markets
- Trump and China selecting a brand new commerce struggle
- The federal government shutdown
- The common geopolitical uncertainty
Let’s skip forward to the top of the month and take into consideration what’s attainable.
- Shares have consolidated and October seasonals are good (getting even higher in Nov/Dec)
- Trump continues to insist China is okay and leaders will meet Nov 1
- The federal government shutdown will inevitably finish
- There’s the tail danger of a ceasefire in Ukraine
Now I am not saying any of these issues are going to occur, and the timeline on others may bleed into November however I feel the dangers to all of these are constructive developments. The drag might be company earnings experiences, which is able to actually begin to warmth up however to this point corporations have been pretty upbeat. At worst I feel it is a two-way danger.
SPX day by day
