Grayscale is utilizing money circulation as a metric to display DeFi tokens following the crypto market’s downturn for the reason that starting of the 12 months. In its report “Information to Shopping for the Dip: Valuing Crypto With Money Flows”, up to date on June 16, 2026, Grayscale makes use of Aave as a case research for DeFi lending valuation and means that Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple are displaying indicators of relative worth based mostly on value a number of evaluation.
10/ The large image: crypto is repricing from narrative → fundamentals
Protocols with actual income, disciplined capital allocation, and clear token economics are outperforming
Grayscale flags $HYPE, $AAVE, $UNI, $SKY, and $MAPLE as displaying sturdy relative worth on this… pic.twitter.com/4E9PlFRAT4
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) June 17, 2026
Grayscale’s Money-Move Valuation Thesis
Grayscale locations money circulation on the heart of valuing crypto property with clear financial exercise, particularly DeFi protocols that generate charges from lending, derivatives buying and selling, DEXs, or stablecoins. For this group, acquainted instruments from conventional finance corresponding to DCF, value multiples, and comparable evaluation develop into extra related.
A notable level in Grayscale’s strategy is whether or not success on the protocol stage interprets into worth on the token stage. Giant TVL or quantity will not be sufficient; tokenomics, governance, and capital allocation decide whether or not that price stream helps token holders or stays restricted to protocol exercise.
Aave is the first case research of the report. Grayscale estimates the protocol might generate roughly $60 million in earnings in 2026, with a good worth market cap for AAVE of round $1.2–1.5 billion if making use of a fintech a number of of 20–25x. In a base case with extra regulatory readability and adoption of tokenized property, Grayscale presents a good worth of round $175 for AAVE inside one 12 months.
The 5 Tokens in Focus
Grayscale names Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple as tasks that fall throughout the similar cash-flow valuation framework, however signify completely different sectors of DeFi: derivatives, lending, DEXs, stablecoins/CDPs, and institutional credit score. DeFiLlama knowledge present that this group collectively generates vital charges, although worth accrual mechanisms and ranges of alignment with the token differ.
DeFi cash-flow metrics of 5 tasks. Supply: Grayscale Analysis, DeFiLlama.
Aave
Aave is the first case research of the report and the clearest instance throughout the DeFi lending group. This protocol options giant liquidity scale, clear monetary knowledge, and a price accrual mechanism a lot clearer than previous-generation governance tokens.
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid represents the perp DEX group that’s producing charges on the largest scale in DeFi. The challenge’s price supply primarily comes from derivatives buying and selling, making Hyperliquid one of the outstanding instances within the cash-flow property group monitored by Grayscale.
Uniswap
Uniswap is without doubt one of the oldest and most influential DEXs within the Ethereum ecosystem, now expanded to a number of different networks. The protocol generates a considerable amount of charges from swapping actions, however for UNI, the important thing factors to watch are the price change, buybacks, or burns applied by way of governance.
Sky
Sky, the ecosystem developed by MakerDAO, represents the stablecoin and collateralized lending sector. SKY’s narrative is tied to the demand for stablecoin borrowing, on-chain collateral property, and mechanisms corresponding to buybacks or staking rewards.
Maple
Maple is a smaller however notable title within the institutional credit score sector. In comparison with Aave, Maple has a narrower scale, however its mannequin specializing in institutional credit score provides the protocol a definite profile throughout the DeFi lending group.
Market Context
Grayscale’s analysis comes after a interval of sharp crypto market correction for the reason that starting of the 12 months, when buyers are trying not just for deeply discounted tokens but in addition for property with clearer valuation fundamentals. For DeFi, the query of “shopping for the dip” is progressively shifting to: which protocol is producing charges, how sustainable is that price portion, and does the token truly profit.
DeFiLlama data roughly $52.2 million in charges inside 24 hours, $1.67 billion in 30 days, and $24.91 billion in a 12 months on its charges dashboard. That scale helps cash-flow evaluation develop into a extra sensible filter for DeFi, as a substitute of simply TVL, incentives, or cyclical narratives.
For protocols like Aave, Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the important thing level to look at is not only the value decline of the token however their potential to keep up charges, income, and mechanisms to switch worth again to token holders.
Dangers and Caveats
Regardless of the applicability of sure conventional valuation frameworks, DeFi tokens should not shares. Token holders shouldn’t have the identical authorized rights as shareholders, and a protocol’s price stream may be allotted very in a different way relying on governance, tokenomics, and treasury coverage.
The dangers for every mannequin are additionally distinct. Aave faces lending dangers and DAO regulatory dangers; Uniswap relies on the price change; Hyperliquid is delicate to derivatives buying and selling exercise; Sky depends on stablecoin and collateral demand; Maple bears institutional credit score dangers. Moreover, DeFi nonetheless faces sensible contract danger, oracle danger, liquidity, and governance adjustments.
What Comes Subsequent
Grayscale’s report positions Aave because the clearest litmus take a look at for valuing DeFi utilizing money flows: the protocol should keep charges, retain liquidity, and switch treasury coverage into measurable worth accrual for AAVE.
For Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the questions are comparable however distinctive to every mannequin: will perp charges maintain up when quantity cools down, will UNI’s price change progress additional, can Sky’s stablecoin demand keep momentum, and may Maple broaden institutional credit score with out rising credit score danger. These would be the deciding components on whether or not cash-flow valuation is merely a brand new perspective after a downturn or turns into a extra sturdy valuation framework for DeFi tokens.
